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U.S. Preview: Jobless Claims to Jump Up to 365k Print E-mail
US Economy |  Written by CEP News |  Apr 30 08 21:37 GMT | 
(CEP News) - U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 26 are expected to come in at 365k, well above the previous week's unexpectedly low reading of 342k. That figure would be lower than the four-week moving average, a less volatile employment indicator, which currently stands at 369.5k.

Margaret Rolley, U.S. economist at Global Insight, expects the weekly claims figure to jump up to 375k, a forecast based on a more general view of the broader economy that is "less optimistic than the consensus."

Continuing claims are expected to bump up to 2.950 million for the week ending April 19, up from the previous week's level of 2.934 million.

"Jobless claims are always interesting," said economist Rishi Sondhi from RBC Capital Economics, noting they offer a timely look on the labour market.

In light of the FOMC statement indicating the Fed has entered into a data-watching mood, there could be a lot of attention on economic indicators, Sondhi added, particularly because the BLS nonfarm payrolls report will be released the following day.

Regarding last week's lower-than-expected number, Sondhi said some seasonal adjustment issues related to the early Easter are still altering the data, but a loosening labour market remains the underlying trend, he said.

Rolley said the employment situation will likely get worse in the coming months, and given the volatility in the jobless claims number, it is difficult to tell what effect the fiscal stimulus package will have in the near-to-medium term.

The previous week's figure was a 10-week low, contrasting sharply with the two-and-a-half year high of 407k jobless claims reached in the final week of March.

After last week's report, David Resler, chief economist from Nomura Securities, said the surprising reversal "may be more an indication of expiring benefits than the re-hiring of laid-off workers." Still, he noted it "reinforces some of the slightly less ominous (signs) that have begun to surface recent weeks."

By Patrick McGee, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it


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