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(CEP News) - Economists expect few surprises in the monthly consumer spending and core inflation report in March, to be released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities, expects "no big revelations" in the report, noting that much of what it will say can be untangled from the GDP report on Wednesday. That report showed personal spending posting a 1.0% advance in the first quarter, above the 0.7% growth level expected by economists, but lower than the 2.3% advance seen in the previous quarter. Consumer spending is expected to increase by 0.2% in March, a faster pace than in the previous month, when spending moved up by just 0.1%, but personal income is expected to advance by only 0.4%, following 0.5% growth in the prior month. Meanwhile, spending - or "consumption" - is expected to show a 0.2% gain, a faster rate of increase than February's 0.1% increase. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator, is expected to advance at a rate of 0.1% in March, with a year-over-year change of 2.0%. Total personal consumption and expenditure is expected to have advanced by 3.2% from the same time last year. Kenneth Beauchemin, U.S. economist at Global Insight, said his forecast is for a 0.1% advance in the core PCE figure, but that there is room for a 0.2% gain if there are no revisions to the previous two month's data, assuming that Wednesday's GDP report is accurate. The GDP report for the first quarter posted an annualized gain of 2.2% in the core PCE rate, just above the tip of the Fed's de facto comfort zone. However, Beauchemin said there is always room for revisions, and the GDP report today is only the first to be released, to be followed by a preliminary estimate and then a final release. Rishi Sondhi, economist at RBC Capital Markets, expects the data to be consistent with the GDP report. He said the month-to-month data so far indicates that momentum is softening heading into the second quarter, so he'll be looking for revisions to the previous month's data to see if that trend is confirmed. Consumer spending comprises roughly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product. By Patrick McGee,
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