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U.S. Preview: U of M/Reuters Consumer Sentiment to Fall Beyond 26-Year Low Print E-mail
US Economy |  Written by CEP News |  May 15 08 19:48 GMT | 
(CEP News) - Economists are looking for consumer sentiment to reach a bottom in the May report issued by Reuters and the University of Michigan, with the consensus expectation at 62.0, six-tenths below the previous month's reading. However, the fiscal stimulus package, which began in late April, may bump up sentiment temporarily.

The preliminary survey is the first monthly evaluation of consumer confidence for the month of May.

In April, the final report for consumer sentiment fell to a 26-year low at 62.6, down from the previous month's 69.2 level.

At the time, T.J. Marta, fixed income strategist from RBC Capital Markets, said, "In looking for historical comparisons, the current situation is morphing from a 2001 or 1990 towards a 1980 or 1973 scenario."

Forecasts for the survey range from a low of 58.5 to a high of 66.4. The last time the survey reached below 62.0 was in March 1982 and the historic low of 51.7 was reached in May 1980.

"A whole number of negatives are just slapping the consumer in the face," said Ellen Zentner, U.S. macroeconomist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Commenting on oil prices she said, "If we only see $4.50 (per gallon) in the summer, we'll be lucky."

She said wages are not keeping up with inflation, and as energy and food prices continue to deplete consumers' discretionary spending, confidence should plummet as a result.

"Fundamentally, consumer confidence should continue to fall," she said. However, her forecast is for a boost in confidence to 66.4 on account of the fiscal stimulus package, which should offer a pause in declining confidence.

She said the tax rebates are merely a sentiment-based temporary solution that will boost consumer spending in the near term before contributing to a "painful post-rebate period." Regardless of the long-term effects, the immediate effect will be to see some optimism.

Earlier this week, the weekly consumer comfort report from ABC News and the Washington Post posted a one-point loss to come in at -47, tying its most pessimistic reading in 27 years, as three-quarters of respondents said the economy is getting worse.

George Adell, fixed income strategist from Commerce Capital Markets, said more attention will be paid to the housing starts data than consumer confidence, which he said won't offer anything new.

Looking forward, Zentner said the tax rebates will make the second slope of the W-shaped recession more severe in the fourth quarter of this year, which may then prompt a second round of tax rebates. "Recessions are necessary," but it's an election year and economic policy moves are often made for political gain, she said.

In the prior report, one-year inflation expectations came in at 4.8%, a half-point increase from the previous month's expectation. Just three months ago, inflation expectations were at 3.5%.

By Patrick McGee, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Nancy Girgis, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it


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