EUR/USD Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis

My working count suggests that we have a triple corrective combination started from 0.8563 (February 2002). I think that we are currently in its third phase which is presented on the chart. It could be a flat or a triangle. In the flat scenario, the currently developing wave (C) should be a terminal impulse (ending diagonal) - my previous suggestion for the structure of wave (C) was exactly the same pattern. This scenario suggests that the current up-move is wave 5 of (C) with potential target 1.3500. When it is over, the wave (C) will have a completed structure as well as the whole triple corrective combination started from February 2002. In such a case a mid-term reversal is forthcoming in coming months (or even weeks) with a potential target a parity i.e. 1.0000 in the next few years. A confirmation for such a scenario will be a sharp fall to the starting point of wave (C) i.e. to 1.1824 after its completion (after initial rise above 1.3363)

The alternative is the third phase of the said triple corrective combination to be a triangle (bearish). In such a case when the current wave (C) is over (it is allowable for wave (C) to move even above 1.3664), one should expect wave (D) and (E) of the same degree. This requires time - at least a year before completing of the said possible bearish triangle i.e. in this case the mid-term reversal will not be as soon as upon the first scenario for the third phase of the triple corrective combination started from 0.8563

Karoll Financial House
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This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.