Euro/US Dollar Monthly Forecast

Euro/US Dollar Long Term Technical Forecast

We were looking for one more high to complete the advance from the 2000 low but the monthly close below the trendline that had contained price since 2002 is enough evidence to proclaim the 8 year uptrend complete. The Fibonacci zone does not begin until 1.2428. A more likely candidate for support is the 50% at 1.1486, which is also near the 2005 low. We can only make an educated guess as to what pattern the EURUSD will take to get there. A likely pattern is a zigzag of sorts, which are sharp.

Euro/US Dollar Fundamental Outlook/Interest Rate Forecast

European and US interest rate forecasts took a clear turn for the worse in recent months, but the difference between said rate forecasts continues to favor the US dollar. In fact, Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps show that interest rate traders expect the yield spread between the Euro and US dollar will contract by over 100 basis points in the coming twelve months. All else remaining equal, this will add downward pressure on the Euro/US dollar exchange rate.

Forex Sentiment and Positioning Outlook for the Euro/US Dollar

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report Suggests Euro May Set Short-Term Bottom

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