Forex Seasonality Studies: New Zealand Dollar Rallies in October

Forex trading market seasonality is an effect widely studied as a primary mover of major currency pairs, as long-term studies suggest that certain seasonal patterns may be able to predict forex price moves. The month of October has not historically produced any especially clear price trends in major currency pairs, but we do notice a noteworthy trend in the New Zealand Dollar. Namely, the NZDUSD has rallied in 7 of the past 9 months of October. Read below for further information on the New Zealand Dollar and forex seasonality studies in other major currency pairs.

EUR/USD

The EURUSD has remained effectively remained unchanged in the past 9 months of October, and it seems there is little seasonal trend in the heavily-traded currency pair. It remains in a range against the US dollar, but we forecast that a EURUSD short-term bounce is possible.

USD/JPY

The Japanese Yen is one of the most historically seasonal currencies in the forex universe, but we see relatively little in the way of seasonal trends for the month of October. Instead, we will watch technical forecasts for the USDJPY to predict medium-term direction for the pair.

GBP/USD

The British Pound has shown a fairly consistent bullish forex seasonal trend through the past five months of October, but clear declines in the previous four months suggests that the longer-term pattern is unclear. Our Senior Strategist's technical forecast for the GBPUSD studies suggests that we will see a short-term correction in the GBPUSD - producing noteworthy rallies.

USD/CHF

There is no clear forex seasonal trend in the Swiss Franc through the month of October, as the USDCHF has on balance remained unchanged through the month for the past 9 years. Our forex technical forecast favors USDCHF declines.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar shows an unclear forex seasonality trend, but we do nonetheless note that the USDCAD has actually fallen sharply in 4 of the last 6 months of October. According to our technical outlook, a failure near current resistance levels would point to further USDCAD declines.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar has held a fairly clear positive trend in the month of October through the past 7 years, but a cursory glance at a chart likewise shows that the AUDUSD has been in a strong uptrend through that same stretch. That is to say, we would argue that there is no clear seasonal trend in the AUDUSD in October; instead, whether it gains or loses is largely a function of the broader trend. Our technical report suggests that a break below 0.7799 could reinforce the AUDUSD's recent downtrend.

NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar has rallied in seven consecutive months of October, showing fairly strong forex seasonality through that stretch. Of course it serves to note that it has likewise been in a fairly clear uptrend through that stretch, and the pattern may largely be a function of ongoing trends and not true seasonality.

DailyFX

Disclaimer

Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.