Long Term View of the EURUSD
For some time now, the USD is looking like a bargain for many reasons: First and foremost, because everybody hates it. Second, because it is still, and for a long time to come, the strategic reserve currency of the world by which every known commodity is quoted by.
It is understandable that investors should walk (actually run) away from a currency that its own government is actively depreciating, but the USD is still representing the greatest economy on earth and should bottom before every other currency. The notion is that it is likely for the US to emerge from the current financial crisis first.
The barometer for this theory is the US index in which the EURUSD pair is the main component. Let's look at this pair's long term (monthly) picture for signs of such an important reversal:
In the price window:
1. We can count 5 waves up (numbers in blue) in the price move from the low of 0.8230 (31-10-2000) to the latest high of 1.6017 (30-04-2008). It is constantly amazing to us how Fibonacci relationships are coming again and again in real life charts. In this case, look how wave 4 was an exact 38.2% retracement (in green).
2. The pair is still in a very big bull market (look at the 12 simple MA in green and its 4 MA in red), but the gap between the price and the MA is getting closed after the great extreme of wave 5.
3. The fact that the price did not reach the outer boundary of the great channel but only to the first inner parallel is the first sign of weakness.
4. The possible targets for the current retracement (based only on wave 5 itself) are shown in black. You can see that these same price levels have been areas of previous support and resistance (violet rectangles).
In the RSI window:
1. The top of wave 5 brought the indicator to the level of the first run in the pair (90). Such extremes were not seen since 2003 (red line and ellipses).
2. The reversal down and the fact that the RSI broke its ascending trend line are quite bearish. It is still over 70 but going down fast.
Conclusion:
From the economic fundamentals and from the long term technical picture, we think that the EURUSD is on its way to much lower levels. The normal correction targets for the last run (in wave 5) are shown here, but if the pair is correcting the whole bull market, many market participants could be really surprised.
The fact that this pair has a major influence on the US index will cause the world to move to a mind set pro-USD and anti-what_worked_before (like commodities). This could be a major event in view of what the financial markets are predicting.
ForexManage
Disclaimer
By no means do any part of this newsletter recommends, advocates or urges the buying, selling or holding of any financial instrument whatsoever. Trading and Investing involves high levels of risk. The author and his company express personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. The author may or may not have positions in Financial Instruments discussed in this newsletter. Future results can be dramatically different from the opinions expressed herein. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The content of this newsletter was created with the best known data at the time. The writer and his company are not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the mentioned data. The writer is not a registered consultant of any kind and so the reader should not see any single part or the whole analysis as an advice for any kind of action in the financial markets.
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