US Dollar/Japanese Yen Monthly Forecast

US Dollar/Japanese Yen Long Term Technical Forecast

No change since last month: This is a chart that we have focused on time and time again. A 4th wave triangle (that took 12 years) is complete at 124.13 as a 4th wave and the USDJPY is headed lower in a 5th wave (and terminal thrust) that will end below 81.12. The underside of the lower line of the triangle was tested as resistance at 110.65 last month. This could be the top of corrective wave 2 from 95.72.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen Fundamental Outlook/Interest Rate Forecast

Japanese Yen interest rate expectations have worsened through recent trade. Yet the Yen is far more likely to move on developments in global risky asset classes, as it has proven largely uncorrelated to changes in its interest rate differential with the US dollar. Forecasts for higher US rates in the coming 12 months are theoretically bullish for the US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair, but it is unclear if an additional 53 basis points in yield differential will do anything for the USD/JPY. In fact, a study of year-to-date currency changes and interest rates has shown that major currencies have moved inversely to their interest rate differential against the USD and JPY. A sharp carry trade unwind has punished those currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, with the highest short-term yields. If we see global equity markets continue to decline, the Japanese Yen will likely continue strengthening against the US Dollar.

Forex Sentiment and Positioning Outlook for the US Dollar/Japanese Yen

Forex Futures data Shows USDJPY May See Further Noteworthy Declines

DailyFX

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