USD/JPY Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis

The fall started from 133.81 (April 2002) is a complex corrective combination which ended at 104.18 (May 2005) upon me. My analysis suggests that it is wave (C) of a multi years sideways movement in a triangle. The current move up is wave (D) of this triangle which is developing as a flat correction with wave C of (D) under way now. The said wave C of (D) could be an impulse or a terminal impulse (ending diagonal). Currently I do not see any reasons to label the rise started from 108.97 as impulsive so I think a terminal impulse is developing here. In such a case there is still much time before its completing because there is still no confirmation that wave 3 has already ended and also wave 4 and 5 are missing i.e. there are months before the end of wave C. The possible target for it is the zone between 124 and 126 yen per dollar. The interesting here is the fact that if the suggestion for a terminal impulse turns the correct scenario, we should see a sharp retrace to at least 100 % once it is completed i.e. a fall to at least 108.97 in wave (E) of the said triangle. So my expectations for this currency pair is forming a multi months high in coming months and beginning of a serious move down with a target 108.97 in the next year.

Karoll Financial House
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This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.