A panic has seized the global financial markets, sending the stocks plunging and overnight lending rates soaring. For the currency market on the other hand, the high-risk, carry pairs have been compar...

The GBP dropped to the lowest level against the USD in almost 5 years to 1.6847 on concern on the dispute between UK and Iceland governments over financial assets which will maybe escalate. The cable ...

The EURUSD is holding above a short term support line. Staying above there keeps the recovery scenario firmly on track. "The decline from 1.4871 is an impulse (5 waves). Expectations were that the ens...

The USDJPY broke below 100 as expected and bears are gunning for the March low at 95.71. A break of that level is eventually expected as well. Near term, price ideally remains below 103.30. Short term...

The path that I outlined last night is proving correct so far; 'the decline from 1.4871 is an impulse (5 waves) and indicates that a short term low likely forms soon. The ensuing advance should prove ...

The Euro has seemingly set a short-term bottom through recent trade, with a further rally likely before a resumption of its medium term decline. The EURUSD next eyes significant resistance at previous...

There is little change from this morning's technicals, in which I wrote that 'the decline from 1.4871 is an impulse (5 waves) and indicates that a short term low likely forms soon. The ensuing advance...

The US dollar and Yen surged today. Expect the Yen to continue its asecnt, as the USDJPY target is not until below 95.71. Recent commentary was “I favor the downside as long as price is below the tren...

The latest IMM data covers the week from September 23 to September 30 and were consequently gathered on the day following last week’s rejection of the US bailout plan by Congress, and thereby at a tim...

Hesitant bulls have pushed USDCAD right up to notable resistance at 1.0800/25, but the momentum for a breakout hasn't fully developed. The indecision at this level suggests that regardless of the whet...

The USDJPY is still in a range. I favor the downside as long as price is below the trendline from the 110.71 top. The 200 day SMA is sloping down (barely) and right at current price. Whichever way thi...

The most bearish count places the EURUSD in a 3rd of a 3rd wave from 1.4179. 1.3820 is potential short term resistance. Oversold RSI on multiple time frames warns of a larger pullback, so confidence i...

Let's look at where we have been to see where we could go. The rally from 1.3877 is clearly in 3 waves but the decline from 1.4817 is in 3 waves to this point also. This suggests to me that waves A an...

Forex trading market seasonality is an effect widely studied as a primary mover of major currency pairs, as long-term studies suggest that certain seasonal patterns may be able to predict forex price ...

Price action on the NZD/USD daily chart, as shown, has bounced up off of a significant downtrend line (marked "A") in what appears to be a pullback move after price broke out above the line on 9/19/20...

The lower the EURUSD goes, the more I am inclined to label the drop from 1.4871 wave X in a larger correction (or wave B of a flat or triangle). The drop counts better as a 7 wave drop than an impulse...

There remain a number of possibilities. While not clearly an impulse, the decline from near 1.49 is deep and accelerating. Remaining below 1.4576 keeps the most bearish count on track (in which a smal...

The EURUSD (and the USD in general) is at a crossroads. The advance from 1.3877 is in 3 waves to this point (corrective) and the drop below the short term support line favors bears. Still, it is likel...

The US dollar is at a crossroads. There are bullish and bearish patterns that are both valid right now. Things should clear up in the next few days though. The EURUSD (and the USD in general) is at a...

On Friday, I wrote that "a deeper correction of the 1.3877-1.4871 advance is preferred although structure is not clear at the moment (it rarely is during a correction). If the decline extends, then lo...

The market-wide hesitancy in taking a position on direction has seemingly been broken with the agreement for a US bailout. With the dollar rallying and carry unwinding, our DailyFX Analysts are lookin...

Risk aversion dominated speculative FX positioning in the week from 16 September to 23 September; carry positioning (long GBP, AUD, NZD and short CHF, JPY) is now as negative as ever. An interpretatio...

Risk appetite throughout the financial markets holds carry sensitive pairs up to potential breakouts. However, with weekend liquidity rapidly approaching and an agreement on a US financial market bail...

Intraday moves have been large. This action is often indicative of at least a short term change in trend. Coming under 1.46 the last 2 days is a sign of weakness and indicates to me that a larger decl...

On balance, the EURUSD ended little changed today (25th) but the intraday moves were large. This action is often indicative of at least a short term change in trend. Coming under 1.46 today is a sign ...

In last night’s update, I wrote that "It is wise to abandon the bullish bias at this point. What I thought was a 4th wave is taking far too long. Although price has yet to slip below the parallel Elli...

Having tested all-time highs at 1.60, the Euro showed a Bearish Engulfing reversal candlestick formation on 07/22 and collapsed nearly 13%. Support was found at the psychologically significant 1.40 le...

It is wise to abandon the bullish bias at this point. What I thought was a 4th wave is taking far too long. Although price has yet to slip below the parallel Elliott channel, it should soon. A reason ...

US Dollar gains are corrective, indicating that the Dollar trend is down for the time being. Still, there are important levels to watch going forward that may yield reversals. The EURUSD short term pa...

In August the NZD/USD broke through the lower line of the downward trend channel. This development established a new steeper downward trend channel. The NZD trades in a zigzag movement between both tr...

A small 4th wave may be unfolding. As long as price is above 1.4546, expect a push into 1.49 in order to complete 5 waves from 1.4071. Coming under 1.4546 (and/or the Elliott channel line) would poten...

The EURUSD likely faces a formidable challenge near 1.49. A sharp reversal at that point is not out of the question. Last night's comments were that “the EURUSD is vulnerable to a pullback soon (in a ...

The US Dollar has lost about 5.6% against the top six of the world’s major currencies in the past 10 days and now looks nearly ready to begin strengthening again. The New Zealand dollar pairing is set...

The EURUSD experienced it second biggest gain in one day ever...rising over 2%. The pair is just below what I think will be strong resistance from the 50% of 1.6040-1.3877 and 8/21 high above 1.49. Fr...

The EURUSD is approaching the Fibonacci retracement zone of the decline from 1.6040-1.3877. The 38.2% is at 1.4667 and the 50% at 1.4919. This area is also a former congestion zone. The bias remains b...

Total speculative positions were extended slightly in the week 9-16 September as net long USD positions were built by USD 1.0bn to USD 13.6bn in a week when EUR/USD edged back well above 1.40. Specula...

Wow. The USDJPY flew through 106.74, negating the bearish bias that we had held. Still, our focus remains on the longer term picture and the advance from 95.72, which is corrective (3 waves). Resistan...

There are a number of various wave counts at the current juncture, which makes trading more risky than normal. The rally from the low (1.3877) in 3 waves to this point. However, the rally from 1.4071 ...

The EURUSD broke through 1.4485 and higher prices are certainly possible from here. The bullish outlook is now intact as long as price is above 1.4071. However, the EURUSD is vulnerable to a correctio...

The EURUSD pattern is unfolding as expected. Expect a break above 1.4485 soon. Bullish targets are at 1.4687 and 1.5082 (100% and 161.8% extensions of wave A). Ideally, price remains above 1.4071 but ...

The USDJPY dropped below the July low and promptly reversed. We have been expecting a resumption of the long term decline that began at 124.13. This is our preferred count as long as price is below 11...

We maintain that a corrective advance is underway from 1.3880. The rally to 1.4480 is probably wave a (the first wave) in a 3 wave correction. Wave b may be complete just below the 61.8% of 1.3877-1.4...

We maintain that a corrective advance is underway from 1.3880. The rally to 1.4480 is probably wave a (the first wave) in a 3 wave correction. Wave b is underway now and could unfold as a triangle, so...

Having issued a blistering rally since mid-July against the other major the currencies, the US Dollar looks finally ready to give back some ground. In recent weeks, we noted that USDJPY could diverge ...

The US dollar decline came to a sharp halt in overnight forex trading, as the euro, British Pound, and other major currencies gave back recent gains against the US currency. Yet our technical studies ...

Overall speculative positions were reduced in the week from 2 September to 9 September. Net long USD positions were scaled back by USD 3.4bn to USD 12.6bn in a week of large USD buying, and in a week ...

It has been an arduous few months for the high-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars. With both the RBA and RBNZ proven their willingness to cut both currencies' primary attraction (a high yield...

The US dollar has finally shown signs that it may post a near-term correction, as a previous forex market sentiment extreme clearly hinted at a USD pullback. We have accordingly shifted our technical ...

Australian Dollar remains confined to a narrow downward sloping channel that dominated the price action since July with the latest price action seeing the pair briefly touching the psychologically imp...

The GBP/AUD has been trading in a 'N-format' after it was breaking out of its old horizontal trend channel. Now we see a resistance at 2.203 and a support level at 2.095. If the market breaks trough t...