Forex news, forecasts and analysis reports from ActionForex.com. http://www.actionforex.com Sat, 20 Mar 2010 22:32:39 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.2 http://www.actionforex.com/images/M_images/aflogo.jpg http://www.actionforex.com Forex news, forecasts and analysis reports from ActionForex.com. http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/market-overview/weekly-review-and-outlook%3a-euro-broadly-lower-on-greece-drama,-look-for-resolution-in-eu-summit-20100320109308/ Euro was sold off sharply last week on the drama of Greece bailout. Just as markets thought there's already an agreement reached between Eurozone countries on the way to provide financial aid to Greece, Germany came out and said that it's illegal to support such a plan and called for... Sat, 20 Mar 2010 11:37:08 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurusd-outlook/eur%10usd-weekly-outlook-20100320109307/ EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.3443 has likely completed at 1.3817 after failing mentioned 1.3852 resistance. Initial bias is on the downside this week for a test on 1.3435 low first. Break will confirm that whole decline from 1.5143 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817... Sat, 20 Mar 2010 10:00:48 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdjpy-outlook/usd%10jpy-weekly-outlook-20100320109306/ USD/JPY was bounded in choppy sideway trading below 91.08 last week and there is no indication that such consolidation is finished. Initial bias remains neutral this week. Nevertheless, note that rise from 0.8813 is still in favor to continue as long as 89.62 cluster support (50% retracement of 88.13 to... Sat, 20 Mar 2010 09:59:39 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/gbpusd-outlook/gbp%10usd-weekly-outlook-20100320109305/ GBP/USD's recovery from 1.4783 extended further to 1.5381 last week but was limited below mentioned 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 as expected. Subsequent sharp fall argues that such recovery is completed. Initial bias is cautiously on the downside for 1.4880 support this week. Break will indicate that... Sat, 20 Mar 2010 09:58:31 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdchf-outlook/usd%10chf-weekly-outlook-20100320109304/ USD/CHF's choppy fall from 1.0897 extended further to as low as 1.0506 last week before recovering mildly. While such fall was deeper than expected, there is no change in the view that it's a correction in the larger rally. Hence, in case of another decline, downside is still expected to... Sat, 20 Mar 2010 09:57:28 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/audusd-outlook/aud%10usd-weekly-outlook-20100320109303/ AUD/USD edged higher to 0.9250 last week but lost momentum after hitting falling trend line resistance. Initial bias is turned neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen. Nevertheless, rise from 0.8577 is still in favor to continue as long as near term rising trend line (now at 0.9057)... Sat, 20 Mar 2010 09:56:16 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdcad-outlook/usd%10cad-weekly-outlook-20100320109302/ USD/CAD dropped to as low as 1.0062 last week but lost momentum ahead of mentioned target of 161.8% projection of 1.0779 to 1.0369 from 1.0679 at 1.0016. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, a short term bottom might be seen in place and some consolidations would possibly be... Sat, 20 Mar 2010 09:55:01 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurgbp-outlook/eur%10gbp-weekly-outlook-20100320109301/ EUR/GBP failed below 0.9137 again and dropped sharply to as low as 0.8914 last week. The cross drew support from 55 days EMA and rebounded strongly. Such development mixed up the outlook. Also, considering that EUR/GBP is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 0.9202), we'll stay neutral... Sat, 20 Mar 2010 09:53:52 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurchf-outlook/eur%10chf-weekly-outlook-20100320109300/ EUR/CHF's fall accelerated last week and reached as low as 1.4318, just inch above 1.4315 key support. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and sustained trading below 1.4315 will target 1.4 psychological level next. On the upside, above 1.4406 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and... Sat, 20 Mar 2010 09:52:36 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurjpy-outlook/eur%10jpy-weekly-outlook-20100320109299/ EUR/JPY failed mentioned 125.22 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 125.26) last week and subsequent sharp fall suggests that choppy recovery from 119.64 has completed at 125.19 already. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to retest 119.64 low... Sat, 20 Mar 2010 09:51:19 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/gbpjpy-outlook/gbp%10jpy-weekly-outlook-20100320109298/ GBP/JPY's recovery extended further to 139.33 last week but failed to reversed after hitting mentioned 139.21 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13 at 139.21, 61.8% retracement of 143.59 to 132.13 at 139.21). The development argues that choppy rise from 132.13, which is treated as a correction to the... Sat, 20 Mar 2010 09:49:47 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/the-week-ahead-20100319109297/ FX markets continue to fluctuate broadly in recent ranges, turning with every twist in the ongoing Greek drama. Risk saw higher in the beginning of the past week as EU leaders appeared to be in agreement on a plan to provide an aid package to Greece. Then the German government... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 17:03:48 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/market-weekly-wrap-20100319109296/ FX traders shifted focus away from European peripherals and toward the FOMC and BOJ central bank meetings early on this week. But the Greek tragedy refused to leave the stage, and the euro continued to suffer from more EU discord over how to help Greece get out of its debt... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 16:28:01 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/fx-strategy-weekly-20100319109295/ Rumours of a hike in the US discount rate on Thursday proved unfounded but served as the starting shot of a rally in the dollar index, with monetary tightening in India on Friday triggering subsequent profit taking in commodity currencies. Accompanied by the increased aversion for EUR and GBP, the... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 16:05:40 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/key-reversal-or-just-%22profit-taking%22?-20100319109294/ It was more than a bit disappointing for the risk bulls to see the week close on a sour note, though optimists might try to write it off as profit-taking or odd behavior and/or profit taking from the triple witching phenomenon. Regardless, it created a number of interesting setups in... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 15:52:46 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/the-weekly-bottom-line-20100319109293/ The economic calendar was filled this week with a plethora of data on the state of the U.S. economy. The impact of inclement weather was evident in several areas including industrial production, which flattened in February after strong gains in the past several months and U.S. housing starts, which fell... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:52:36 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/weekly-technical-update%3a-greenback-strength-re%11emerging-20100319109292/ Last week, it the USD crosses such as the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were showing signs of reversal after greenback dominance for end of 2009 and most of 2010 so far. However, by week's end, the greenback prevailed, and we may have to start thinking of USD-bullish outlooks in the coming... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:43:06 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/aud%10nzd-eyes-1.32-20100319109291/ Daily and 4H: The previous post noted that the AUD/NZD decline was a 2nd leg of a correction and was nearing a full projection at 1.2860. This was to test a 200MA in 4H time-frame, and is the 78.6% Retracement of the latest upswing. The market eventually reached 1.2850 and... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:33:37 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary-20100319109290/ In our 2010 annual outlook we forecasted a growth rate of 2 percent plus for 2010 and overall consumer inflation of around 2 percent as well. This week's economic releases support that outlook. On the real economy side, three economic releases this week - industrial production, the Philadelphia Fed index... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 13:33:45 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/economic-calendar/summary-3%1022-%11-3%1026-20100319109289/ Monday, Mar 22, 2010 include('http://www.actionforex.com/resources/calendar/cals1.php?f=20100322s'); Tuesday, Mar 23, 2010 include('http://www.actionforex.com/resources/calendar/cals1.php?f=20100323s'); Wednesday, Mar 24, 2010 include('http://www.actionforex.com/resources/calendar/cals1.php?f=20100324s'); Thursday, Mar 25, 2010 include('http://www.actionforex.com/resources/calendar/cals1.php?f=20100325s'); Friday, Mar 26, 2010 include('http://www.actionforex.com/resources/calendar/cals1.php?f=20100326s'); Fri, 19 Mar 2010 12:58:18 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/weekly-focus%3a-market-rates-set-to-head-upwards-20100319109288/ Overall the improvement in risk sentiment appears to continue despite Greece continuing to dominate headlines. Standard & Poor's reaffirmation of Greece's BBB+ rating at least temporarily calmed nerves on Greece. However, with Greece now trying to force a some sort of solution in connection with the EU summit later in... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 12:46:10 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/usd-higher,-greek-debt-worries,-india-hikes-rates-20100319109287/ The USD traded higher Friday with the EUR pressured by uncertainty about whether the EU will agree to aid Greece. Monitoring the news out of Europe in regard to potential for Greece aid rivals the back and forth reports of whether or not the US Congress has the votes to... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 11:56:13 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/greece-doubts-and-india-rate-hike-boost-risk-aversion-20100319109286/ The Dollar surged in today's trading as there were mounting concerns about Greece's debt problems and an interest rate hike by India caused a sell-off of commodities. US equities were lower as well pressuring higher-yielders and commodity-linked currencies. The drop in US stocks and commodities is a symptom on increased... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 11:51:38 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/greece%3a-crucial-eu-summit-20100319109285/ At the end of last week, EUR-USD had surged to over 1.37, thus breaking out above the trading range of the past weeks. In the run-up to the FOMC meeting, the single currency actually managed to increase its gains to over 1.38 temporarily. As from Thursday, however, the euro came... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 11:05:19 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/weekly-market-commentary-20100319109284/ ‘The Federal Reserve is uniquely suited to supervise large, complex financial organisations and to address both safety and soundness risks and risks to the stability of the financial system as a whole’, said Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke in his testimony at the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. The question,... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 10:55:33 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/chart-of-the-day%3a-usd%10chf-20100319109283/ Bullish price action on USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, has made a tentative bullish bounce off the key 1.0500 support region. This occurs after around a week of bearishness in the pair. The current bounce places USD/CHF on track to continue the uptrend that has been in... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 10:51:17 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/afternoon-forex-overview-20100319109282/ The dollar extended its rally Friday morning as U.S. stocks fell into the red and mounting concerns about Greece's debt problems hurt demand for riskier assets. The euro was hit further, dipping as far as USD1.3512, the lowest since March 2, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average changed direction and... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 10:48:13 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/us-market-update-20100319109281/ The euro continues to be weighed down in the early New York morning on lingering concerns about whether Greece would secure financial assistance from the EU. The USD also benefited from risk aversion flows following the inter-meeting rate hike by India's central bank (RBI). India was expected to possibly raise... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 10:45:44 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/usd%10cad-tests-support-after-retracement-pattern-20100319109280/ 1H: The 1H time-frame shows the dramatic decline in the near-term after the start of the US session. Note that the completed retracement rally was a zig zag with a 2-wave A structure and a 3-wave C structure. The wave count is not clear to me here , but the... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 09:48:39 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/currency-currents%3a-hodgepodge-20100319109275/ No wonder everyone is hiding in German bonds. This rush to a European safe haven has pushed yields on the 10-year German bunds lower; it has resulted in a significant widening of the spread in favor of US 10-year Treasury notes. In the charts on the next page we compare... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 09:30:00 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/discount-rate-discussions-keeping-floor-under-bonds-20100319109274/ Once again bond markets are having a hard time maintaining a rally after the Fed's earlier stand on its policy of maintaining low interest rates. Dealers continue to mull the potential for a second nudge higher in the Fed's discount rate, which is overhanging market sentiment. As much as investors... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 09:21:05 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/super%11cad-keeps-up-head-of-steam-on-inflation-data-20100319109273/ The Euro continued to slide overnight and into the early US hours, as the major low for the cycle at 1.3435 is rapidly approaching. GBPUSD failed to hold the 1.5240 area support and dropped a figure as well in the overnight action. The resilient commodity currencies remain the market's high-flyers,... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:49:26 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/usd%10chf-bullish-bias-20100319109272/ Usd/Chf has made a turning point to the Long side over the last session as expected, after an extended black wave C) found the bottom around 1.5005. An uptrend is now expected to continue with a break through the 1.0650 resistance confirming that a low is in place. Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:45:35 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/canadian-retail-sales-in-january-jumped-up-in-the-month-following-a-gain-in-december-20100319109271/ Canadian retail sales in January rose a robust 0.7%, which was slightly stronger than the 0.6% rise expected going into the report. This small upward surprise occurred despite new car sales being much weaker than expected by dropping 2.3%. The offset was an unexpectedly large surge of 1.8% in ex-auto... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:34:23 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/canada%27s-annual-core-inflation-rate-in-february-rises-unexpectedly-20100319109270/ The February consumer price report rose a greater than expected 0.4% (UA) in the month. Expectations going into the report were for an increase of 0.3%. This did not prevent the year-over-year rate from dropping to just 1.6% from 1.9% in January. Expectations had been for a drop to 1.4%.... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:33:13 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurchf-outlook/eur%10chf-mid%11day-outlook-20100319109269/ EUR/CHF dived further to as low as 1.4318 today, just inch above mentioned target of 1.4315 key support next. Intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.4406 minor resistance holds and further is still in favor. Sustained break of 1.4315 will target next medium term level at 100%... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:30:26 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurusd-outlook/eur%10usd-mid%11day-outlook-20100319109268/ EUR/USD's fall from 1.3817 extends further to as low as 1.3533 in early US session and at intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.3435 low. As discussed before, consolidations from 1.3443 should have completed at 1.3817 already. Break of 1.3435 will confirm that whole decline from 1.5143 has resumed... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:26:40 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/gbpusd-outlook/gbp%10usd-mid%11day-outlook-20100319109267/ GBP/USD's fall from 1.5381 continues today but is still kept above 1.4977 support. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As discussed before, price actions from from 1.4783 are treated as corrections in the larger decline only. Break of 1.4977 support will suggest that such correction is completed and will... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:22:41 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdchf-outlook/usd%10chf-mid%11day-outlook-20100319109266/ Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Another fall cannot be ruled out with 1.0643 resistance intact. But we'd continue to expect strong support from rising trend line (now at 1.0482) to conclude the correction from 1.0897 bring rally resumption. Decisive break of 1.0634 will argue that such... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:14:57 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdjpy-outlook/usd%10jpy-mid%11day-outlook-20100319109265/ Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it's still bounded in choppy sideway trading below 91.08. As noted before, rise from 88.13 is still expected to continue as long as 89.62 cluster support (50% retracement of 88.13 to 91.08 at 89.60) holds. Above 91.08 will bring rally resumption to 92.14... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:12:41 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/fx-thoughts-for-the-day-20100319109264/ As per our expectations, Swiss has bounced back from the Support region at 1.0542-36 and we may now expect the pair to move up towards the Resistance region of 1.0641-50 followed by a fall towards 1.0600 in the US Session today. We are holding long at 1.0560. Though we expect... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:09:21 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdcad-outlook/usd%10cad-mid%11day-outlook-20100319109263/ USD/CAD's fall resumed after recover was limited at 1.0187 and dropped sharply to as low as 1.0062 so far in early US session. Current decline is still expected to target 161.8% projection of 1.0779 to 1.0369 from 1.0679 at 1.0016 next, which is close to parity. On the upside, though,... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:00:42 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/canadian-dollar-in-purgatory-20100319109262/ A jump in the core inflation rate in Canada has dealers left wondering how much longer the Bank of Canada will be able to maintain its conditional commitment to a near-zero interest rate policy. February data rose above the 2% target and leaves the central bank floundering against a January... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 07:59:33 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/usd-higher,-eur-weakens-on-greek-uncertainty-20100319109261/ The USD is trading higher on Greek uncertainty and in reaction to rumors that the Fed may hike the discount rate before the next policy meeting in April, German officials suggest that the IMF option is best for Greece, EU officials suggest that the EU member states are ready to... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 07:57:38 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/market-overview/mid%11day-report%3a-loonie-surges-on-inflation-and-retail-sales-data,-euro-extends-weakness-20100319109260/ Canadian dollar surges sharply today, boosted by stronger than expected inflation as well as retail sales. Headline CPI moderated from 1.9% yoy to 1.6% yoy in February, above expectation of 1.4% yoy. More importantly core CPI surprised the markets by accelerating from 2.0% to 2.1%. While BoC reiterated the conditional... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 07:55:50 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/usdjpy%3a-seeks-for-a-direction-20100319109259/ The pair continues to struggle and search for a direction but while trading within its established long term falling channel, it retains its medium term downtrend bias. As that continues to shape up, risk is seen towards its Mar 01’10 high at 89.47 with a clean break through there setting... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 07:25:25 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/forex-heats-up%11-swiss-and-cad-rate-questions-20100319109258/ After a range-bound Asian session, the U.S. dollar started again to strengthen across the board during the last European session of the week. However, continuing the pattern laid over the last few sessions, the major pairs had mixed responses to the current episode of U.S. dollar strength. This de-couple between... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 07:21:39 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/london-session-recap-20100319109257/ Time is running out for Greece. On April 20th and May 19th two Greek government bonds amounting to EUR8.2 bln and EUR8.5 bln respectively will mature. It is estimated that the Greek debt office still needs to raise EUR10 bln to roll-over this debt. While this month's 10 yr bond... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 06:13:31 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/eurusd-%11-weak-and-targeting-the-1.3536-level-20100319109256/ EURUSD - With a strong sell off pushing the pair through its Mar 15'10 low at 1.3638 on Thursday, risk is now seen towards its next downside target located at its Mar 09'10 low at 1.3536. However, despite its current downside pressure, EUR still retains its corrective to consolidation tone... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 06:05:08 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/technical-analysis-daily%3a-usd%10jpy-20100319109255/ Dollar/Yen is trading hesitantly this week within the small 89.75 - 90.89 range, as seen on the 15 minute chart, in converse with the very negative bank sentiment at around -59%. On Thursday the currency couple dropped down to 89.75, from where it rose to 90.70, closing the day at... Fri, 19 Mar 2010 05:57:35 +0100