Forex news, forecasts and analysis reports from ActionForex.com. http://www.actionforex.com Mon, 12 May 2008 17:31:59 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.2 http://www.actionforex.com/images/M_images/aflogo.jpg http://www.actionforex.com Forex news, forecasts and analysis reports from ActionForex.com. http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/new-york-session-recap-2008051245673/ Risk appetites returned in the absence of bad news, or at least 'not as bad as feared,' as major US bond insurers reported multi-billion dollar losses below analysts' expectations. US stocks gained about 1% as retailers also beat earnings estimates. As well, oil prices finally moderated, though only marginally, after... Mon, 12 May 2008 17:00:08 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/economic-calendar/eco-data-5%1012%1008-2008051145658/ include('http://www.actionforex.com/resources/calendar/cal1.php?f=20080513'); Mon, 12 May 2008 13:37:05 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/chart-of-the-day%3a-eur%10chf-2008051245657/ The EUR/CHF daily chart, as shown, has just bounced up off a steep, short-term uptrend line (labeled "1" on the chart) that exists within the larger context of a rising wedge formation. In turn, this rising wedge exists within the context of the medium-term downtrend (represented by the red resistance... Mon, 12 May 2008 13:32:37 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/forex-fundamental-outlook-2008051245654/ Chicago Fed President Evans reported the U.S. economy will begin to expand in H1 2008 "but not enough to prevent economic activity from still running at a relatively sluggish pace." Many Fed officials will speak this week and traders will closely monitor their latest assessment of monetary policy. The dollar... Mon, 12 May 2008 13:16:29 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/economics-weekly%3a-interest-rate-cycles-compared-%11-only-modest-signs-of-credit-crunch?-2008051245650/ There has been a lot of debate about the impact of the credit crisis on the UK economy, with any new sign of weakness in economic data automatically laid at its door. We will not attempt in this piece to try and disentangle whether weakness in the economy is due... Mon, 12 May 2008 12:01:32 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/euro-crosses-resume-bull-trend-2008051245649/ Expect the EURGBP to reach the former 4th wave congestion zone (.7391-.7612) over the next few weeks. Near term, a bearish bias is warranted against .7941. An unexpected move above there may encounter resistance at the 61.8% of .8097-.7766 at .7970. Mon, 12 May 2008 11:51:48 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/u.s.-market-update-2008051245647/ The dollar started the European session on a firm note as dealers took notice of comments in the weekend press regarding a "possible" floor plan being worked out for the greenback. By midway through the New York morning, EUR/USD was seen rising above 1.5480 level after testing as low as... Mon, 12 May 2008 11:44:58 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/euro-bounce-to-remain-unconvincing-for-now-2008051245646/ The $1.2 pullback in oil is keeping any euro advances in check near the $1.55 figure. Currency markets will take this week's busy schedule of US economic reports as the first tangible basis of whether the dollar recovery is warranted by improved US economic data rather than negative reports from... Mon, 12 May 2008 11:43:12 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary-2008051245633/ The two key risks for the economy remain tight credit conditions and soaring oil prices. The credit markets have actually shown some tentative signs of improving and a few well known prognosticators, like Alan Greenspan, have stated they believe the worst is now behind us. Oil prices, however, continue to... Mon, 12 May 2008 10:29:56 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/today%27s-market-outlook-2008051245631/ GBPUSD: Extended decline from 2.0024, 21 Apr lower top, with break below 1.9600, marking full retracement of 1.9600/2.0024 upleg and triggering fresh losses that bottomed at 1.9442 today. Recovery attempt is under way, with 1.9616 high reached so far, just ahead of 1.9618, 08 May previous high. Sustained lift above... Mon, 12 May 2008 10:19:05 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/the-federal-reserve-is-observing-events-2008051245629/ The long term trend stays bearish, but the U.S. dollar might follow a period of consolidation with the Federal Reserve adopting a more neutral stance and the European Central Bank holding rates steady. In the mean time, during the first quarter of 2008, final real domestic demand in the United... Mon, 12 May 2008 10:14:27 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/daily-forex-outlook%3a-eur%10usd-2008051245628/ The chart shows my working count for the rise started from 1.5282. I think that the movement to 1.5488 is corrective in nature. If this is the case, we should see initial fall minimum to 1.5360 prior to new powerful up-move. Earlier today there was a fall but only to... Mon, 12 May 2008 10:09:16 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/euro-and-pound-positioning-are-bullish-2008051245627/ EUR: The 52 and 13 week indexes are at 2 and 8 after being at 0 last week. A bearish extreme has been realized and the Euro should gain in the next few weeks. GBP: GBP positioning is similar to Euro positioning. The 52 and 13 week indexes are both... Mon, 12 May 2008 09:56:51 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/slow-start-to-a-light-data-week-in-canada-2008051245625/ The only economic data release from now until Thursday is today's new house price index for March. A moderating trend in the sales-to-new-listings ratio, an indication of the supply/demand balance in the housing market, informs our forecast calling for slower growth in the new house price index (NHPI). On a... Mon, 12 May 2008 09:46:10 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/dollar-sliding!-2008051245622/ The US session lacked fundamentals from the heart of the economy, yet MBIA, a US bond insurer posting wider than expected losses on the back on housing market losses and deepened housing falls strengthened majors to gain against the dollar as such news insures the economy is yet to emerge... Mon, 12 May 2008 09:39:06 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/top-currency-trading-ideas-for-the-week-of-may-12,-2008-2008051245612/ The current psychology (news headlines and COT data) is suggestive of a short term bottom in the EURUSD. Recent newspaper headlines include "Steady Dollar Tempers Allure of Some Bets" (WSJ, 5/12) and "A Signal From Fed Could Aid Dollar Rally" (Online WSJ, 5/12). The first headline demonstrates complacency and the... Mon, 12 May 2008 08:55:43 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/weekly-forex-technical-overview-2008051245611/ The euro/dollar closed mixed after recovering from an over two-month low. My model remains short since 1.5900. The pair is no longer overbought after dropping some 700 pips in less than three weeks. Is that the end of the downward correction? I wouldn’t be surprised. Initial resistance is at 1.5545.... Mon, 12 May 2008 08:48:27 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/this-week%27s-data-and-events-2008051245610/ The dollar was all over the place last week as the euro correction ran out of steam and the appetite for risk fluctuated. Apparent weakness of the yen reversed, while weak fundamentals sapped the pound. Expect consolidation this week, with the euro seeing slightly more risk on the upside. Mon, 12 May 2008 08:44:25 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdchf-outlook/usd%10chf-mid%11day-outlook-2008051245609/ USD/CHF's recovery and touching of 1.0498 minor resistance suggests that an intraday low is in place. Outlook remains neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, rise from 0.9995 could have already completed at 1.0623. Hence further downside is still in favor. Below... Mon, 12 May 2008 08:35:50 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdjpy-outlook/usd%10jpy-mid%11day-outlook-2008051245607/ USD/JPY's recovery extends to 104.04 in early US session. Further downside is still mildly in favor as long as 104.10 resistance holds. As mentioned before, bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI argues the rebound from 95.77 has topped out at 105.70 already. Below 102.58 will indicate fall... Mon, 12 May 2008 08:33:27 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/fx-thoughts-for-the-day-2008051245606/ We had suggested the existence of an important Support at 1.9440 in the morning. Despite the worse than expected UK Trade Balance numbers, the Pound has shot up from 1.9494 in the morning to near 1.9605 and is currently trading near 1.9582. A further rise towards 1.9665 is possible, either... Mon, 12 May 2008 08:28:43 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/daily-fx-forecast-2008051245605/ GBP/USD has risen to 1.9600 our target earlier today as it was suggested in our previous report No change in our view On downside, the bias remains bearish in mid and longer term for test towards 1.9400 and 1.9350 longer term targets First immediate Support stands near 1.9540 ahead of... Mon, 12 May 2008 08:26:43 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurusd-outlook/eur%10usd-mid%11day-outlook-2008051245604/ Outlook in EUR/USD remains unchanged. TOuching of 1.5387 minor resistance argues recovery from 1.5284 could have completed at 1.5489. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retest of 1.5284 low. Break will confirm whole fall from 1.6019 has resumed for next short term target of 1.4966 cluster support (61.8%... Mon, 12 May 2008 08:24:36 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/gbpusd-outlook/gbp%10usd-mid%11day-outlook-2008051245603/ Cable recovers strongly after edging lower to 1.9442 earlier today. As mentioned before, even though downside momentum seems diminishing, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.9621 resistance holds. Prior break of 1.9599 support indicates that decline from 2.0391 has resumed for retest of 1.9337 low. On the... Mon, 12 May 2008 08:22:00 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/market-overview/mid%11day-report%3a-sterling-rounds-on-record-producer-price-inflation-2008051245602/ The British Pound stages a strong rebound across the board today after strong producer price inflation data prompted further speculation that BoE won't speed up the pace of policy easing. PPI input accelerated sharply to 23.3% yoy in Apr, beating expectation of 21.5% and was the highest reading since the... Mon, 12 May 2008 08:16:14 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdcad-outlook/usd%10cad-mid%11day-outlook-2008051245600/ The flag like consolidation from 1.0326 continues as USD/CAD has another dip today. After all, there is no indication of completion of such consolidation yet. Though, downside is expected to be contained well above 0.9709 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.0242 resistance will be an important signal that... Mon, 12 May 2008 07:54:23 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/audusd-outlook/aud%10usd-mid%11day-outlook-2008051245597/ No change in AUD/USD's outlook as consolidation continues. With 0.9339 support still holds, price actions from 0.9505 is treated as pull back to rise from 0.9275 only. As mentioned before, correction from 0.9541 should have completed with three waves down to 0.9275, contained above 0.9252 cluster support holds (50% retracement... Mon, 12 May 2008 07:49:18 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/weekly-technical-commentary-2008051245589/ Dipping to some of this year's lowest levels as consensus opinion calls Cable much lower starting now. Ballooning open interest this month suggests a gung-ho attitude. We disagree and feel we are working in a downward-sloping 'wedge' formation which should lead to a sudden and possibly dramatic reversal this week.... Mon, 12 May 2008 06:48:44 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/technical-analysis-daily%3a-usd%10jpy-2008051245581/ The Japanese Yen overcame the key level 103.70 upwards against the US Dollar, which is 61.7% Fibonacci correction of the descent 108.50 - 95.90. The first support for today is expected at today's bottom 102.60. Next support downwards is expected at 101.70, followed by 101.00. In upward direction resistance for... Mon, 12 May 2008 06:06:49 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/london-session-recap-2008051245580/ The opening London Session of the week has seen a continuation of high volatility, offering traders the fates of victory or defeat in a merciless fashion. The market has lacked forgiveness, with even skilled traders unable to trade around positions on the wrong side. The dominant theme of the day... Mon, 12 May 2008 06:03:09 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/currency-technical-report-2008051245579/ Pound remains below the resistance level we had defined even if the move after the downward break of 1.9600 does not fit a clear break. Our first targets in the area of 1.9430 were reached and we wait for the next targets at 1.9350-70 to be confirmed. Important resistance for... Mon, 12 May 2008 05:48:32 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/5-most-important-events-for-the-forex-market-this-week-2008051245578/ The majority of forex market-moving economic indicators will be contained to a 48 hour period this week, as the US dollar will face the release of Advance Retail Sales and CPI, while the British pound will encounter UK CPI, jobless claims, and the BOE Quarterly Inflation Report. Not to be... Mon, 12 May 2008 05:42:40 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/gbpjpy-outlook/gbp%10jpy-daily-outlook-2008051245577/ GBP/JPY's strong recovery today, with 4 hours MACD crossing above signal line and touching of 203.31 minor resistance, indicates that an intraday low is in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment and further sideway consolidation could be seen. Nevertheless, as mentioned before, prior break of the short term... Mon, 12 May 2008 05:30:11 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/ppi-data-boosts-sterling-2008051245576/ High CPI data on Tuesday would reinforce the major policy difficulties faced by the Bank of England. Sterling was trapped below the 1.95 level against the dollar in early Europe on Monday ahead of the UK data. Producer prices continued to rise strongly in April with input prices rising 2.4%... Mon, 12 May 2008 05:29:57 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurjpy-outlook/eur%10jpy-daily-outlook-2008051245575/ EUR/JPY recovers after decline from 164.97 just met 100% projection of 164.97 to 160.58 from 163.09 at 158.70 and was contained slightly above mentioned 158.24 support (50% retracement of 151.71 to 164.97 at 158.34). 4 hours MACD's cross above signal line and touching of 160.42 minor resistance indicates that an... Mon, 12 May 2008 05:21:30 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/pound-rebounds-as-inflation-soars%3a-boe-%11-no-chance-of-cutting-rates?-2008051245574/ Pound roared back from a steep selloff after UK Producer Prices posted their sharpest increase ever recorded, negating any possibility of a near term BoE rate cut, as inflation pressures continue to plague UK economy. Input PPI rose a staggering 23.1% on an annual basis while output prices increased 7.5%.... Mon, 12 May 2008 05:13:27 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/forex-trading/recommended-forex-brokers/ingot-brokers-2008051245573/ INGOT Brokers SA is a Swiss Online Foreign Exchange Broker located in Geneva in Switzerland and is a member of ARIF, a Swiss association that supervises and controls financial intermediaries. ARIF has been reinforcing Swiss anti-money laundering laws since 1999. INGOT Brokers SA, Switzerland is a sister company of INGOT... Mon, 12 May 2008 05:07:12 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/majors-rise-2008051245572/ The greenback is falling versus major currencies as it is not getting supported by any fundamental data being released today. Currently in the market we are noticing carry trades as investors buy high yielding assets while they sell low yielding currencies. This morning we saw the dollar rising as it... Mon, 12 May 2008 04:57:07 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/australian-%26-new-zealand-weekly%3a-australian-dollar-forecast-2008051245571/ We are raising our forecast for the peak level of the AUD against the USD in this long up cycle from 96˘ in December 2008 to $1.01 by March 2009. That implies that the AUD will rise a further 6.5% from its current level and 5% from our previous forecast... Mon, 12 May 2008 04:41:09 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/tough-job-awaits-the-boe!-2008051245570/ The BOE last week kept rates steady at 5.00% yet they didn't release a statement, and today's PPI data explained the situation they are facing, rising inflation could have devastating effects on the economy and might start to change investors' minds over the next move by the BOE… Mon, 12 May 2008 04:40:01 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/currency-pair-daily-forecasts-2008051245569/ EUR/USD - Market strategy can be a sell at the level 1.5435 To support our analysis we will see MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence); we see that the selling pressure is gaining traction and that the signal line is crossing the long EMA line down in a downward direction and... Mon, 12 May 2008 04:38:11 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/dollar-climbs-as-us-economy-shows-signs-of-recovery-2008051245568/ Poor economic data revealed last week for the Euro Zone, as well as the outlook that Fed will keep interest rates steady, pushed the Dollar up to two-month highs against the Euro and a basket of major currencies. The US currency traded at 1.5392 against the Euro at 7:00am GMT.... Mon, 12 May 2008 04:32:18 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/european-market-update-2008051245567/ In currencies, the USD started the European session on a firm note as dealers took notice of comments in the weekend press regarding a ''possible'' floor plan being worked on for the dollar. A WSJ article reported over the weekend that a US official stated that the Bush administration is... Mon, 12 May 2008 04:26:30 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/weekly-forex-signals%3a-gbp%10usd-2008051245566/ The Sterling may continue the downtrend against the US dollar; according to technical charts the market is in a bearish direction with confirmation of many indicators like RSI, which is in a downtrend, MACD breaks the signal line, Bollinger gives us a bearish signal by closing the candle below the... Mon, 12 May 2008 04:20:51 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/forex-technical-analysis-2008051245565/ EUR/USD The pair is in a downtrend from the short-term top at 1.6019. Technical indicators on the 4 h. chart are falling and convergent. After breaking below the 1.5361 support next important level is projected at 1.4966-1.50+ sentiment level. Mon, 12 May 2008 04:08:22 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/technical-analysis-daily%3a-gbp%10usd-2008051245564/ The British Pound overcame the key level 1.9500 downwards against the US Dollar at the 1.9500 level downwards, but was stopped at 1.9445, which is currently the first support level for the currency couple and bounced. If the negative sentiment continues, next support is expected at 1.9380, followed by 1.9330.... Mon, 12 May 2008 04:02:44 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/forex-technical-analytics-2008051245563/ The pre-planned breakout variant for sales has been realized but without attainment of assumed targets within previous trading day. OsMA trend indicator having marked the features of formation of reversal bullish signal with further strengthening of buyers' activity is not a positive moment to preserve earlier opened short positions but... Mon, 12 May 2008 03:59:39 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/daily-forex-analysis-2008051245561/ EUR/USD There is a very interesting bearish channel forming on the 4 hour chart as the pair now moves down within the channel. The Slow Stochastic is showing a strong bearish cross, as the RSI confirms. It appears that the pair is heading 1.5310 and going short might be a... Mon, 12 May 2008 03:54:38 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/the-dollar%27s-strength-is-close-to-a-temporary-end-2008051245560/ The Dollar has started the week on a firm note following the decline into Friday's session and given the poor news from Australia and Japan it highlights how the global slowdown is spreading its influence across the entire globe. Mon, 12 May 2008 03:32:33 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurusd-outlook/eur%10usd-daily-outlook-2008051245559/ EUR/USD's recovery from 1.5284 was limited at 1.5489 and retreats. Break of 1.5387 minor support argues such recovery could have completed and intraday bias is flipped mildly to the downside for retest of 1.5284 low. Break will confirm whole fall from 1.6019 has resumed for next short term target of... Mon, 12 May 2008 03:22:32 +0100