Forex news, forecasts and analysis reports from ActionForex.com. http://www.actionforex.com Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:58:42 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.2 http://www.actionforex.com/images/M_images/aflogo.jpg http://www.actionforex.com Forex news, forecasts and analysis reports from ActionForex.com. http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/currency-market-consolidates-throughout-the-u.s.-session-2009070290883/ Overall, the currency market moved on increased volume on Thursday, as the economic calendar of the U.S. session was loaded with top tier releases. Among them, the NFP and the ECB press conference were the two most important, but so far it seems that the market has priced-in the weaker... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:46:24 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/new-york-session-recap-2009070290882/ It was another exciting session in NY early on as the buck extended overnight gains on unbridled risk aversion. The overnight comments from China that they did not ask the G-8 to discuss the USD reserve status at the meeting next week provided the spark and a horrendous NFP report... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:44:46 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/forex-fundamental-outlook-2009070290881/ The common currency gaved back most of yesterday's gains ahead of the long holiday weekend in the U.S. As expected, the European Central Bank kept monetary policy unchanged and ECB President Trichet reported interest rates remain "appropriate." Trichet also said recent economic data indicate the global economy has reached an... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:48:27 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/july-monthly-forecast%3a-%22the-new-normal%22-2009070290880/ As we head into the heart of the summer, markets seem to be taking a breather, with lighter trading volume, stocks and commodities holding onto recent gains (including the best quarterly gains in the stock market in 20 years), treasury yields edging off of recent highs, and currency trading bands... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:42:27 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/economic-calendar/-eco-data-7%103%1009-2009070290879/ include('http://www.actionforex.com/resources/calendar/cal1.php?f=20090703'); Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:28:15 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/chart-of-the-day%3a-aud%10usd-2009070290878/ Dollar-strengthening price action on AUD/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has once again descended back down to a key uptrend support line extending from the March lows. This line has already been touched three times since its inception, and the current bearishness has created a fourth. While this... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:13:22 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/ecb-to-hold-rates-steady-for-some-time-2009070290877/ Today's decision by the European Central Bank to leave its key policy interest rates unchanged was universally expected. That is not to say that the policy outlook is completely clear cut. Today's surprise rate cut by the Swedish Riksbank and growing expectations that the Bank of England may step up... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:01:09 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/employment-and-growth-questioned-after-nfp-bloodbath-2009070290876/ Once again the U.S. monthly employment condition caught the markets, or specifically the analysts, out in regard to the negative numbers that were reported in the Non-farm payroll, initial jobless, and unemployment rate detail. The Trough part of the global business cycle takes a while to get out of, and... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:50:43 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/markets-still-watching-the-wrong-thing-2009070290875/ For much of 2H 2007 and through 1H 2008 it was obvious to many, myself too, that market participants were ignoring credit market signals…blowing out of credit spreads, downgrades of RMBS, CDOs and spiking CDS on all sorts of securities. Remember the stock market put in a record high in... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:15:22 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/risk-aversion-boosts-demand-for-the-dollar-after-worse%11than%11expected-payroll-number-2009070290874/ The dollar strengthened across the board as the worse-than-expected non-farm payroll number prompted traders to steer away from high-yields. The EurUsd continues its losing streak thanks to the dollar strength, dipped 160pips from yesterday’s high to 1.40 as downward momentum was represented by declining RSI. The GbpUsd fell 100pips and... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:10:14 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/usd%10jpy-declines-with-pullback-in-u.s.-equities-2009070290871/ The USD/JPY’s little rally is fading again as volume subsides. It seems the USD/JPY is dribbling to a dead-halt directionally with four consecutive lower highs (4/6, 5/7, 6/5, and now 7/1) combined with two consecutive higher lows (5/22, 6/23). The currency pair remains stuck choosing between the two deteriorating economies... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:48:02 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/gbp%10usd-sinks-after-negative-data-stream-2009070290870/ The Cable is reacting negatively to the negative unemployment data points from both the U.S. and EU. Additionally, Britain’s construction PMI contracted from its previously release, coming in below analyst expectations. The positive sentiment the Pound has garnered over the past couple months has been dented by the disappointing GDP... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:44:07 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/eur%10usd-reverses-from-our-3rd-tier-downtrend-line-2009070290869/ The EUR/USD is losing yesterday's positive momentum after employment data from both the EU and U.S. showed rising unemployment continues to be a thorn in the side of the economic recovery. The EU's unemployment rate came in at 9.5%, two basis points above analyst expectations, while the previous release was... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:43:01 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/us%3a-employment-report-disappoints-2009070290868/ The US employment report for June showed a larger than expected decline in employment. Although some of this was due to the unwinding of temporary census-related hires by the federal government, subtracting these 49K still leaves the overall report a disappointment. Net revisions to April and May amount to a... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:37:29 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/afternoon-forex-overview-2009070290867/ The yen and dollar are down against riskier rivals Friday morning after market sentiment picked up on stronger crude and equities. However, trading has been volatile and largely range bound, indicative of the market's uncertainty ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The euro's overnight gains are slipping... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:33:34 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/u.s.-market-update-2009070290866/ The USD continued its modest recovery as the holiday-shortened week drew to a close. Officials downplaying the reserve currency topic at next week's G8 summit initially aided the USD. Following the US payroll data, the risk aversion theme crept back into the overall sentiment and further favored the USD. EUR/USD... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:22:13 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/ecb%3a-steady-as-she-goes-2009070290865/ As expected, the ECB left interest rates unchanged in July at 1.00% and provided very few changes to their outlook for inflation and the Eurozone economy. The only notable change in language was the downgrading of inflationary pressures from “moderate” to “low.” Outside of this, the ECB continues to see... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:20:58 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/ecb-press-conference-analysis-2009070290863/ At the ECB press conference, held after the announcement to hold the minimum bid rate at 1%, as expected, Mr. Trichet re-iterated on Thursday the same messages as in the last few press conferences. The euro-area economy is going through a contraction period, which is likely to continue for the... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:15:36 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/the-ecb-continues-supporting-the-economy-2009070290862/ The data released in the second quarter of the current year were better than those released in the first quarter when the economy witnessed the worst economic recession since WWII. The ECB today left the interest rate unchanged at 1% as they see it suitable for this phase. However, there... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:11:59 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/u.s.-employment-report-creates-more-waves-2009070290861/ The U.S. trading week is ending in completely the opposite fashion to its demure start thanks to yet another resounding number of jobs lost during the month of June. As a result of a payroll report reading 467,000 losses and 100,000 more than anticipated, the recovery theme suffered a dramatic... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:40:14 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/ecb-meeting%3a-no-new-weapons-on-the-battlefield-2009070290860/ The refinancing rate was unchanged at 1.0% as expected. Trichet did not signal that further rate cuts are in the pipeline, although he did again say that the governing council had not decided that 1% is the lowest level. With inflation in negative territory and low money growth it could... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:36:14 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/non%11farm-payrolls-prop-up-usd-2009070290859/ The greenback strengthened against the majors following the highly anticipated June jobs report, pushing the euro toward the 1.40-figure and the sterling to 1.6330. The US equity bourses fell sharply, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all lower by over 2% in morning trading. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:30:19 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/gbpusd-outlook/gbp%10usd-mid%11day-outlook-2009070290858/ Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside with focus on 1.6232 support. As noted before, break there will be an early signal that GBP/USD has topped out already, with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Deeper decline should then be seen to 1.5801 support for confirmation.... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:27:14 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurusd-outlook/eur%10usd-mid%11day-outlook-2009070290857/ EUR/USD dives sharply to as low as 1.4004 in early US session and focus is now on 1.4000 support. Break there will suggest that whole recovery from 1.3474 has completed. Further break of 1.3826 support will indicate that fall from 1.4337 is likely resuming for trend line support (now at... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:22:40 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/unemployment-continue-to-rise-in-the-united-states-as-companies-layoff-467k-employees-in-june!!!-2009070290856/ The U.S. labor market continue to suffer from great weakness, as rising unemployment continue to undermine economic growth in the world's largest economy, in addition to tightened credit conditions, and diminishing wealth, as all continue to weigh down on consumer spending which account for nearly 2/3 of economic activity in... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:18:32 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdchf-outlook/usd%10chf-mid%11day-outlook-2009070290855/ USD/CHF's rebound from 1.0712 extends further in early US session and pushes 4 hours MACD above signal line. It's likely that correction from 1.1021 has completed and break of 1.0889 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.1021 first. Break will confirm whole rebound from 1.0590 has resumed... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:07:48 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/bigger%11than%11expected-drop-in-u.s.-payroll-employment-in-june-2009070290854/ Payroll employment fell 467,000 in June, a bigger slide relative to the 365,000 drop expected within financial markets going into the report. This was up from May's surprisingly small drop of 322,000 (revised from the previously estimated -345,000) although still down from April's decline of 519,000. The household survey contained... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:03:26 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurjpy-outlook/eur%10jpy-mid%11day-outlook-2009070290853/ EUR/JPY's break of 135.50 minor support suggests that an intraday top is at least formed. As mentioned before, we treats the rebound form 131.41 as a correction to fall from 139.21 only and hence, such correction might have completed at 136.87 too. Break of 133.36 support will add much credence... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:58:51 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/audusd-outlook/aud%10usd-mid%11day-outlook-2009070290852/ AUD/USD's break of 0.7983 minor support suggests that rebound from 0.7788 has completed at 0.8154 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for a test of 0.7788 support first. It's still possibly that price actions from 0.8236 are corrective in nature and focus will be on 0.7710 cluster... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:53:22 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/us-employment-report-a-slightly-disappointing-mixed-bag-2009070290851/ The US employment report showed a negative surprise approximately in-line with the negative surprise in the ADP number yesterday. Some positive spin can be induced from the unemployment rate, which only rose 0.1% to 9.5%, which should get plenty of attention from the "second derivative crowd". This is the smallest... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:46:23 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/dollar-reserve-issues-continue-2009070290850/ The dollar will remain very sensitive to issues of global reserve management and evidence of a move away from the US currency would continue to unsettle the US currency, especially if there are further negative comments. There is, however, little incentive for any of the key major global players to... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:42:53 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/employment%3a-job-losses-reflect-sector-changes-2009070290849/ Non-farm employment fell 467,000 with widespread declines in many sectors especially for the ongoing structural change in manufacturing. The job losses are consistent with our expectations for modest economic growth without job growth the rest of this year. Higher unemployment rates and slower wage gains limit consumer income growth. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:34:26 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdjpy-outlook/usd%10jpy-mid%11day-outlook-2009070290846/ USD/JPY's break of 96.16 minor support indicates that an intraday top is at least formed at 96.96 and flips intraday bias back to the downside. Near term focus remains on 94.87 support. As long as this support holds, we'd still prefer the case that fall from 98.87, which is treated... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:17:58 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/market-overview/mid%11day-report%3a-yen-and-dollar-higher-after-nfp-disappoints,-muted-reactions-to-ecb-2009070290845/ Yen and, to a lesser extent, dollar are generally higher in early US session on risk aversion following the release of worse than expected Non-Farm Payroll report from US. The report showed deeper than expected -467K contraction of the job market in Jun, versus consensus of -375K. Though, prior month's... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:17:01 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/uk-pmi-construction-contraction-deepened-in-june-2009070290844/ The Royal resuscitation, continues to take place on the United Kingdom's deathbed, where continuous aids are used in order to save Europe's leading economy from their doom. The protracted Credit Crisis recently struck the United Kingdom, pushing them into their worst recession since World War II, which resulted in obligating... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:00:39 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/ecb/%28ecb%29-press-conference-introductory-statement-2-july,-2009-2009070290843/ On the basis of its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The current rates remain appropriate taking into account all the information and analyses that have become available since our meeting on 4 June 2009. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:56:06 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/fx-thoughts-for-the-day-2009070290842/ Cable has bounced from the low of 1.6329 and is likely to move further up. A rise past 1.6460 might take the pair further up towards 1.6600. On the downside, it has important Support near 1.6260-40 (where 1.6260 is the 200-MA on the 4H chart). A break past this which... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:45:37 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/come-on-...-who-sells-dollars-ahead-of-july-4th?-2009070290841/ By the looks of it, traders might actually be respecting the holiday commemorating US Independence. The dollar is positive on the day so far. Over the last week or so the currencies have struggled to carve out any sustained direction - the moves have amounted mostly to a whole bunch... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:28:52 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/european-central-bank-holds-rates-steady-for-the-third-consecutive-time-2009070290840/ The verdict is out; the European Central Bank held their benchmark rates steady at 1.00%, a historic low, as policy makers believe that the current rates are the most suitable at the time being. Attention will remain concentrated toward the approved 60 billion euro’s, where the purchases of the long-term... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:51:46 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/little-movement-throughout-the-european-session-2009070290839/ Overall, the currency market moved very little during the European session, but to some extent, this was widely expected as investors prepare for the U.S. open. This is a crucial point ahead, which might send the market back into a risk-averse mode, thus sending the dollar higher, or it will... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:40:41 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/global-markets-head-lower-ahead-of-the-ecb,-nfp-2009070290838/ U.S. futures and European cash trade moved lower throughout the overnight session, as the financial market positions itself ahead of the U.S. economic release calendar. The global markets await two very important economic reports, both notorious for their strength and capacity to move the market from one corner to the... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:11:01 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/currency-technical-report-2009070290837/ Euro rose yesterday, breaching resistance at 1,4130-50 and formed a top at 1,4200. The sideways formation is still valid and we need a daily close and a clear break of 1,4150-00 in order to confirm an uptrend. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:46:39 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/markets-are-on-hiatus-ahead-of-ecb-rate-decision-and-early-nfp%27s-%11-will-we-break-current-ranges?-2009070290836/ After having hit a high at 1.4201 yesterday on reports the Vice-finance minister of China wasn't aware of his government's request to discuss use of the IMF's SDR as an alternative. This doesn't come as a surprise on the part of the Chinese government as we all know they are... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:43:36 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/forex-technical-analysis-2009070290835/ EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3064 and 1.3524. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:39:07 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/daily-fx-report-2009070290834/ The JPY rose against 14 of the 16 most-traded currencies on concern that a report may show today that U.S. unemployment rate climbed for the 18th month, increasing demand for the relative safety of the JPY. The JPY strengthened versus the EUR from a two-week low to 136.65 at the... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:35:23 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/gbpusd%3a-losses-upside-momentum,-faces-downside-weakness-2009070290833/ With upside price failure on Tuesday forming a shooting candle pattern and putting the pair back into its sideways trading range, outlook for GBP remains to the downside nearer term while that pattern holds. In corroborating this view, the pair was seen weakening early trading today. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:31:25 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/london-session-recap-2009070290830/ On a morning which was overshadowed by the approach of the ECB policy decision and the US June payroll data, it was comments from China that caused much of the price action. The USD climbed after Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei stated his hope that the USD will remain... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:17:32 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/european-market-update-2009070290829/ In Currencies: The USD recovered some ground it lost during the NY afternoon on Wednesday as the reserve currency issues continues to plague its overall sentiment. The upcoming G8 will only provide more fuel for member nations possibly mulling a new 'super-reserve' currency at some future point. For the time... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:15:02 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/technical-analysis-daily%3a-usd%10jpy-2009070290828/ On Wednesday Dollar/Yen attempted to rise, reaching a peak at 96.96, but further bullish movement was limited and the currency couple closed the day at 96.63. The 96.75 resistance was penetrated upwards, but the upward momentum is still unconvincing to confirm the upward trend views. A consistent movement above 96.75... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:10:41 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/daily-forex-technicals/currency-pair-daily-forecasts-2009070290827/ EUR/USD-market strategy can be a sell from the level 1.4090$ To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines after a bearish crossover above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use... Thu, 02 Jul 2009 04:45:21 +0100