Weekly review and outlook on the forex market available in ActionForex.com http://www.actionforex.com Sat, 17 May 2008 08:15:12 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.2 http://www.actionforex.com/images/M_images/aflogo.jpg http://www.actionforex.com Weekly review and outlook on the forex market available in ActionForex.com http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/this-week%27s-market-outlook-2008051646305/ The USD has remained largely confined to ranges over the past several weeks. In EUR/USD, that range has been roughly 1.53-56; in USD/JPY, 102.50-105.50; in GBP/USD, 1.94-97; and in USD/CAD 0.9950-1.0250. To a large extent, these range-bound trading conditions reflect the current inertia of monetary policy at key central banks,... Fri, 16 May 2008 16:46:35 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/u.s.-weekly-wrap%11up-2008051646298/ The strength in the energy complex helped push the dollar lower this week, after the greenback gained ground in the prior three weeks. Commodity strength fueled a rise in the Canadian and Australian dollars: the CAD got back to parity with the USD, and the AUD hit a 24-year high... Fri, 16 May 2008 15:38:56 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/the-weekly-bottom-line-2008051646295/ In recent weeks, there has been a growing sense of optimism in financial markets that the worst may be over for the credit markets, and that the U.S. economy could escape from its housing woes with relatively minor bruises. Moreover, investors have been building in a likelihood that the Fed... Fri, 16 May 2008 14:23:40 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/weekly-focus%3a-oil-prices-may-not-have-peaked-yet-2008051646289/ High energy and food prices are already a headache for the world's central banks, coming as they do at a time of stagnating growth, not least in the West. This week it was the Bank of England that sounded the alarm, warning that inflation will not permit interest rate cuts... Fri, 16 May 2008 11:49:26 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/british-pound-in-early-stages-of-large-bull-move-2008051646288/ Once the darling of directional speculators, the British Pound has traded sideways in 2008. However, a big move is brewing. Technical factors indicate that the Pound is in the early stages of a bull move that could exceed 2.04 by the middle of July. Fri, 16 May 2008 11:32:47 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/economic-outlook%3a-stagflation-once-again?-2008051646287/ Inflation has become a major issue in the financial markets. Many now compare the current situation with the early 1970s when inflation rose while economic growth slowed. The fact is that commodity prices have risen sharply as they did at the time of the first oil crisis. Also, the dollar... Fri, 16 May 2008 11:26:49 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/fx-briefing%3a-dollar-lacks-direction-2008051646268/ Once again, bond markets priced in substantial interest rate hikes in the USA and scaled back expectations of interest rate cuts in the eurozone: during the course of the week, yields on 2-year Treasuries rose by about 30 points to 2.50%, yields on German 2-year notes also climbed by 30... Fri, 16 May 2008 10:36:23 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/weekly-market-commentary-2008051646267/ Again despite corrective US dollar strength, which saw the Yen drop to 105.45 and Cable to $1.9361, Nymex Crude Oil set a new record high of $126.98 per barrel, taking Gasoline and Heating Oil to new records at $3.2370 and $3.7228 respectively. Note that in Euros a new record at... Fri, 16 May 2008 10:33:32 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/australian-%26-new-zealand-weekly%3a-gov%27ts-domestic-demand-forecast-will-unnerve-rba-2008051646265/ We were not surprised by the fiscal details of this weeks Budget. In our preview we predicted that the fiscal 'tightening' would be 0.3% of GDP and that the injection of new funds in 2008/09 would be around $5bn. Readers will be aware that the Budget projects an increase in... Fri, 16 May 2008 10:26:53 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/pound-positioning-holds-net-long-with-1.94-support-in-sight-2008051546175/ The GBPUSD's sentiment positioning gauge has managed to hold above parity for two weeks in a row; and once again, this reading accompanies a significant development in underlying price action. Last week the strong positive flip in positioning came with a drop from GBPUSD below significant support seen at 1.96.... Thu, 15 May 2008 21:21:45 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/euro%10pound-correction-resumes-2008051546117/ This is the count that we have working with for some time. Clearly, the dominant trend has been up since January 2007 but that does not mean that we can't play the short side from time to time. We view the rally from .6679 as wave 3 within the 5... Thu, 15 May 2008 10:00:53 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/hedging-through-usdjpy-retrace-protects-longs,-offers-entry-2008051545995/ As the worse of risk aversion abated, USDJPY began to lift from March lows at 91.71 to enter into what is now a nearly 2-month long uptrend. Price action had been guided by an upward sloping trend line, a support that has recently been broken as USDJPY settled into consolidation... Thu, 15 May 2008 00:22:35 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/traders-bet-the-fed-will-hold-as-credit,-growth-outlook-improve-2008051445971/ Despite the pressure still evident in both the financial markets and economic data, market participants are still very confident that the Fed will take a wait-and-see approach to rates come June 25th. In fact, Fed Fund futures show there is a 94 percent probability the FOMC will hold the benchmark... Wed, 14 May 2008 15:42:41 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/fx-crossroads%3a-eur%10usd-%11-will-history-repeat-itself?-2008051445951/ EUR/USD rallied sharply from October 2000 to January 2001, but then spent 18 months trying to clear the January high. While we do not necessarily expect history to repeat itself, a dollar rally may still take longer to materialise than many now seem to expect. We show that while valuation... Wed, 14 May 2008 10:51:14 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/weekly-market-outlook-2008051345795/ Last week price action sees up/down swings in a consolidation range extending from 1.5290 ti 1.5590. These levels have to be monitored carefully, as a break higher or lower will confirm trend has resumed. To the upside, 1.5520/90 resistance zone, once cleared, will allow prices to test 1.5620 & 1.5695... Tue, 13 May 2008 10:46:00 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/weekly-view-of-the-usdchf-2008051345748/ If you believe that the USD complex is on the verge of a multi-month reversal for fundamental reasons, like we do, then one of the most interesting tasks is to choose where to trade this reversal in an optimum way. The most common pair for traders would be the EURUSD... Tue, 13 May 2008 07:19:40 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/imm-positioning-%11-increase-in-net-short-dollar-positions-2008051345709/ Overall speculative positions were increased in the week from 29 April to 6 May, as net short USD positions rose by USD 2.9bn to USD 9bn. Net long CAD positions were increased significantly and rose by USD 2.4bn to USD 3.1bn, bringing speculative positions back to the levels of early... Tue, 13 May 2008 02:35:22 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/weekly-forex-technicals/euro-retraces,-looks-for-downtrend-to-resume-2008051345696/ Over the past several weeks, we've experimented with the establishing our Fibonacci retracement setup for the EURUSD to capture either the entire bullish run from 1.4437 to 1.6019 or just the first leg that took the pair to 1.59. Following the initial run, EURUSD made a triple top at 1.59... Tue, 13 May 2008 01:32:47 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/economics-weekly%3a-interest-rate-cycles-compared-%11-only-modest-signs-of-credit-crunch?-2008051245650/ There has been a lot of debate about the impact of the credit crisis on the UK economy, with any new sign of weakness in economic data automatically laid at its door. We will not attempt in this piece to try and disentangle whether weakness in the economy is due... Mon, 12 May 2008 12:01:32 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary-2008051245633/ The two key risks for the economy remain tight credit conditions and soaring oil prices. The credit markets have actually shown some tentative signs of improving and a few well known prognosticators, like Alan Greenspan, have stated they believe the worst is now behind us. Oil prices, however, continue to... Mon, 12 May 2008 10:29:56 +0100