Long term forecasts reports from selected analysts around the world on forex market. Available in ActionForex.com http://www.actionforex.com Fri, 19 Mar 2010 05:27:18 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.2 http://www.actionforex.com/images/M_images/aflogo.jpg http://www.actionforex.com Long term forecasts reports from selected analysts around the world on forex market. Available in ActionForex.com http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/fx-forecast-update%3a-low-rates-for-longer-%11-greek-impact-on-eur-loses-momentum-20100315108862/ Low rates are here to stay - at least in the G4. It is becoming increasingly clear that central banks in Europe, the US, the UK and Japan are in no hurry to normalise monetary conditions. Fiscal tightening, needed to curb the soaring budget deficits, simply crowds out monetary tightening.... Mon, 15 Mar 2010 09:58:40 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/global-markets%3a-once-more-unto-the-breach,-dear-risk-20100312108746/ Timed from the trough in equity markets, we are now one year out from the start of the recovery. The context of the story has gyrated from bailouts of banks to governments, but the overall story remains the ebb and flow of risk appetite. There is a feeling from the... Fri, 12 Mar 2010 10:16:49 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/research-euroland%3a-the-weakest-link-20100312108745/ Euroland growth was surprisingly weak in Q4 2009 with GDP growing a mere 0.1% q/q. France saw highest growth (0.6% q/q) among the larger euro area members, while Germany saw a flat GDP. Spain remained in recession (-0.1% q/q), while Italy slipped back into recession (-0.2% q/q) after a more... Fri, 12 Mar 2010 10:09:22 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/monthly-economic-outlook-%11-march-2010-20100311108614/ Recent economic reports have cast doubts about the strength and durability of the recovery. Many concerns center on disappointing reports from the nation’s beleaguered housing sector, which has seen home sales tumble following a spurt fueled by the tax incentives. Sales of new and existing homes have fallen sharply in... Thu, 11 Mar 2010 06:20:31 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/international-financial-outlook-march-2010-20100311108613/ As widely predicted, financial markets have been volatile as the end of the period of extraordinary monetary and fiscal loosening draws nearer. Economic growth is picking up and becoming more entrenched in most countries. As a result of this, some central banks, like Australia and Norway, have raised rates a... Thu, 11 Mar 2010 06:14:34 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/research-us%3a-recovery-on-track,-but-not-fast-track-20100311108610/ The economic recovery is on track with ongoing, but gradual, signs of progress among consumers and businesses, but with some more erratic developments in housing. In Q4 09, the economy delivered its second positive quarter on growth following the recession, with GDP expanding at 5.9% q/q AR. Indeed this turned... Thu, 11 Mar 2010 05:48:47 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/fx-forecast-update%3a-single-currency-%11-multiple-worries-20100216106806/ Greek debt concerns intensified during the past month, leaving the euro with a heightened risk premium. While an unsustainable Greek fiscal policy should not be a major concern for the eurozone as a whole (Greece only constitutes some 2-3% of total eurozone GDP) the situation has escalated to a point... Tue, 16 Feb 2010 05:37:26 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/the-australian-dollar-outlook-20100205106165/ In mid December, the Australian dollar was sitting at around 90.5˘. Since that time the AUD has moved in a 93˘ to 86˘ range. We are now sitting at the extreme lowpoint of that area after a run of negative sentiment accumulated in the early part of February. Indeed, the... Fri, 05 Feb 2010 10:22:10 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/monthly-economic-outlook-%11-january-2010-20100113104431/ Our estimate for fourth quarter real GDP has been raised significantly as a result of October and November's stronger inventory numbers. We are still expecting a $20 billion drop in inventories, so there is some upside risk. The slower pace of inventory liquidations is expected to add around 4 percentage... Wed, 13 Jan 2010 09:42:18 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/international-financial-outlook-january-2010-20100113104430/ World economic recovery is underway, led by the emerging markets. When the data for Q4 2009 are in, they will show that all of the G20 economies - which together account for over 90% of world gdp - are expanding. This recovery has three main implications for financial markets in... Wed, 13 Jan 2010 09:36:14 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/financial-markets-monthly-%11-january-2010-20100110104147/ Data over the past month largely produced upside surprises relative to market forecasts resulting in a sustained pickup in equity markets and a relatively sharp rise in government bond yields. Since our last publication on December 4, 2009, 10-year rates in the markets that we cover were up as much... Sun, 10 Jan 2010 03:22:11 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/fx-themes-for-2010-20091228103459/ For most of 2009 the USD traded weaker pressured by low yields and improving risk appetite. USD in ending the year near a three and half month high supported by a shift in focus to improving US economic outlook and Fed rate hike speculation. We expect the USD to rally... Mon, 28 Dec 2009 22:05:33 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/2010-outlook-%26-trading-themes-20091227103395/ Herein we provide a quick summation of our top trades for 2010. Each trade is discussed more fully in the geographic and product-specific sections of this report. 1) Long CAD / Short EUR (Page 10) CAD should outperform EUR due to rising commodity prices and Canada's stronger structural position. Sun, 27 Dec 2009 11:18:27 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/annual-economic-outlook-2010-%11-rebalancing-the-u.s.-economy-for-a-new-course-20091227103394/ Trading was fundamentally transformed by the European Age of Discovery, which was pioneered by Portuguese navigators, such as Bartolomeu Dias and Vasco da Gama, who set sail down the West African coast, eventually making it to India by the end of the 16th century. The new course broke the stranglehold... Sun, 27 Dec 2009 11:13:08 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/global%3a-market-themes-in-2010-20091227103393/ Risky assets generally thrive when growth is in the early - and normally fastest - stages of recovery. As this year's brisk recovery has happened alongside massive cost-cutting earnings have been in a ‘sweet spot'. However, much of the fuel driving the recovery is of a temporary nature. The most... Sun, 27 Dec 2009 11:08:06 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/the-labor-market-pain-conundrum-20091115100620/ The labor market has been one of the hardest hits sectors of the real economy during the credit crisis, with the same trend being seen in most of the developed economies. The history of labor reporting indicates that employment is a lagging indicator of economic health, where the slack in... Sun, 15 Nov 2009 05:56:46 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/monthly-economic-outlook-20091112100497/ So it indeed has been. As this short quote from the Executive Summary of our 2009 Annual Outlook (published in December 2008) neatly summarized, the economic recovery faces a number of secular challenges that will alter the pace and composition of growth. For many decision-makers, the outlook for 2010 suggests... Thu, 12 Nov 2009 13:46:38 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/financial-markets-monthly-%11-november-2009-20091109100193/ The tide has turned for the global economy with U.S. real GDP posting a stronger-than-expected increase in the third quarter, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) citing Australia’s good economic performance as a reason for raising the policy rate and China recording a breathtaking 8.9% increase in third-quarter output. Canada,... Mon, 09 Nov 2009 07:47:30 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/international-financial-outlook-november,-2009-20091109100192/ Foreign exchange rate volatility remained fairly intense last month. Interest rates were calmer but here too tensions have increased, as financial markets give more thought to when some of the extraordinary loosening of monetary policy seen over the last year will start to be reversed. On the foreign currency front,... Mon, 09 Nov 2009 07:42:18 +0100 http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/what-is-gold-telling-us?-2009102098757/ Gold prices have surged in recent months, which some observers claim is a clear warning that inflation will soon turn sharply higher as it did in the late 1970s. However, other forward-looking market-based inflation indicators do not support this hypothesis. Inflation indicators such as bond yields, consumer expectations and TIPS... Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:31:01 +0100