Australian Dollar Crosses Face Resistance

AUDCHF

If 1.0823 holds, then the count in black is valid. That count indicates that the AUDCHF is in wave C of a large correction that will eventually come under .8882. However, with price so close to breaching 1.0823, we are presenting the alternate (in red); which suggests that the advance from .8882 is wave B of a triangle.

AUDCAD

The rally from .8271 is roughly equal to the .8119-.9514 advance and the rally stalled at the 61.8% of the 1.0546.8119 decline. These measurements bring to the forefront the possibility that a large triangle is unfolding since the April 2001 low. In a triangle, the next leg would be lower in wave D towards .88 or so. The alternate count treats the advance from .8819 and subsequent decline as waves 1 and 2 in a bull cycle. We favor the triangle scenario given the unmistakable 3 wave movements and Fibonacci measurements.

AUDNZD

Expect the AUDNZD to complete the small 4th wave near the 38.2% of 1.1331-1.2413 at 1.20. This level is former congestion. It is also possible that a triangle is unfolding from the wave iii top (1.2412). Either way, sideways / downward on balance action is expected for the next few weeks.

TREND ANALYSIS is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.

DailyFX

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