Australian Dollar Crosses Topping and Heading Lower

AUDCHF

We maintain our stance that a multi-year top is in place at 1.0823 but the AUDCHF must remain below 1.0131 if the bearish count presented above is correct. A move through there would require us to reassess the situation. With that level so close, reward/risk is heavily skewed in favor of bears

AUDCAD

The rally from .8271 is roughly equal to the .8119-.9514 advance and the rally stalled at the 61.8% of the 1.0546.8119 decline. These measurements bring to the forefront the possibility that a large triangle is unfolding since the April 2001 low. In a triangle, the next leg would be lower in wave D towards .88 or so. The alternate count treats the advance from .8819 and subsequent decline as waves 1 and 2 in a bull cycle. We favor the triangle scenario given the unmistakable 3 wave movements and Fibonacci measurements.

AUDNZD

We wrote last week that "the pair has rocketed higher into what is probably a small wave iii peak today. Expect consolidation over the next few weeks in wave iv (within the 5 wave advance from 1.1149) before wave 5 surpasses 1.2450." The bulk of the expected correction has taken place today. Expect the AUDNZD to complete the small 4th wave near the 38.2% of 1.1331-1.2413 at 1.20. This level is former congestion.

TREND ANALYSIS is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.

DailyFX

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