Daily FX Report

Good morning from rainy Hamburg and welcome to the Varengold Daily FX Report. The weather in Hamburg has gotten colder. We hope, however, to get a better summer in Germany and hope for successful trading days for all our clients.

Markets review

The Japanese corporate goods price index rose 7.1% in July, higher than an expected 5.8% increase. That's marking the highest rate of rise in 27 years and adds to worries that high commodity prices are hurting companies and are leading to an economic recession. Additionally, the Japanese consumer confidence index fell to a record low of 31.4 in July, the fourth straight month of decline. Some analysts see a chance of a BOJ rate hike, while the central bank is more worried about slowing economic growth than the risk of runaway inflation. In spite of the data, the USD/JPY hardly reacted and traded unchanged at 110.12.

The AUD was hit by worries over sharp falls in commodities, because Australia is a big exporter of metals and other resources. Additionally, market expectations of RBA rate cuts added pressure on the currency. The AUD/USD dipped 0.2% to 0.8824 and remains around a 6-1/2-month low level of 0.8789.

The dollar index rose 0.2% to a 6-month high of 76.425, while oil retreated further from record highs, and concerns over the slowing global economy hurt other currencies. The EUR/USD decreased 0.3% to a 6-month low of 1.4860.

Technical analysis

EUR/JPY

Since the beginning of May, the EUR/JPY has been trading in a bullish trend channel with a resistance at 169.77 and a support level at 164.64. The currency pair decreased in the least trading days and crossed the support level. This development might be a trend reversal.

AUD/JPY

The AUD/JPY showed a bullish face between the beginning of May and the end of June. After touching the resistance level at 103.83 twice, it started to decrease to its old level at 97. If the market does not break trough the support, we will expect a new bullish development for the next days.

Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels

Daily Calendar & Key FX Events

Varengold Bank

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