Daily FX Report

Good morning from beautiful Hamburg and welcome to the last Daily FX Report of this week. Speculations related to Greece's rescue package go to the next round and it remains to be seen how long the speculation will go on until Europe may find a join solution. However, we hope you enjoyed the first week with our expanded FX Report and wish you a nice weekend

Markets review

The EUR weakened versus the USD to the lowest level since the 10th of March to 1.3587 as Greece's prime minister set a one-week deadline for the European Union to set up a financial rescue package and raised fears that Greece will fail to secure financial assistance from the EU. Also the EUR/CHF boosted its downward trend once again and declined near to its lowest level in 17 months as Jean-Pierre Danthine, a SNB Government Board member said yesterday that policy makers can't keep borrowing costs near zero for an extended period of time and maintain purchases of foreign currencies indefinitely. The GBP/USD recovered and compensated its Wednesday's gains as the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia economic index rose to 18.9 percent from 17.6 one month earlier, readings greater than zero indicate growth. Foreign long- Term investments in the USA, including setting up wholly owned subsidiaries, joint ventures and buying stakes in existing American companies decreased last year to $152.1bln from $319.7bln in 2008, a Commerce Department report showed yesterday. U.S. investments abroad fell 33 percent last year to the lowest level since 2005. The national current account deficit narrowed to $419.9bln in 2009, the smallest since 2001, according to the Commerce Department. The USD/JPY closed nearly unchanged at 90.45 after opening at 90.37.

As prices for the April delivery of crude oil declined 0.9 percent on the NYMEX the USD/CAD rebounded after a two-days winning streak near to the parity. The USD closed on Thursday near its highest level against the CAD at 1.0141 and rose up to the 1.0152 level during the early Asia trading hours tonight.

The AUD/NZD headed for its biggest increase since December on speculation the interest rate gap between both nations will narrow. The AUD fell against the NZD from 1.2932 at its opening to 1.2855 at its lowest level.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD (1 Hour)

While the EUR/USD crossed its resistance around the 1.3797 level as shown in the yesterday's report the currency pair rebounded heralded by a long packing Doji close to a bearish trend-line. For the time being it seems that the support around 1.3597 stops the bearish movement. The RSI may show nearly an oversold market even though the short-term moving average is still trading lower than its long-term counterpart and maybe won't suggest a trend-reversal shortly.

USD/JPY (4 Hour)

After the USD traded bearish versus the JPY during the end of February it recovered close to a bullish trend-line. Having the currency pair crossed this line and lost its support it has been trading in a bearish trend-channel mostly between the 50.0% rather 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line. It remains to be seen if the currency pair could break through one of them, the contracting Bollinger Bands may suggest an upcoming break-out.

GBP/USD (1 Hour)

The GBP/USD has been trading in a bearish trend-channel after it broke through its support around 1.5284 as shown in our analysis yesterday. At the moment the bears are testing the support around 1.5233 and if this line will also break it may boost the bears near to the 1.5204. The ADX indicator shows such a low level that could suggest less pressure on the downside

USD/CAD (2 Hour)

The USD/CAD crossed for the first time since the 11th of March its bearish trend-line yesterday and rose near to the next resistance level around 1.0145. The increasing ADX as well as the rising positive DMI, both above 30, may suggest a continuing bullish environment. On the other side there should be a next support around the 1.0130 rather 1.0114

AUD/JPY (Daily)

Since the beginning of March the currency pair has been trading in a bullish trend-channel and touched its resistance near 83.72 at last. As you can see, the AUD/JPY has been trading close to its Median Line of Andrews Pitchfork and may suggest a continuing bullish trend. On the other hand-side we have to consider the MACD indicator which is still declining and could denote damping bullish power

Varengold Bank

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