DailyFX Analysts Pick AUD and NZD
- DailyFX Analysts Bullish AUD
- Mixed Views on NZD
The Australian dollar hit a 25 year high, making it the best performing currency. Most DailyFX analysts are still bullish AUD. Given the divergence in growth, the AUD will probably perform best against the CAD, NZD and JPY.
Chief Currency Analyst - Kathy Lien
My picks: Short NZD/JPY
Expertise: Combining Fundamentals with Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1-3 Days
The Australian dollar hit a new 25 year high this morning, which has taken my long AUD/CAD recommendation to its profit target. I am still very bullish AUD and will continue to look to buy AUD/CAD on dips down to 9725 with a stop at 9625. Canadian employment was very weak (first drop since Dec 2007) while yesterday's Australian employment report was hot.
However my favorite trade right now is short NZD/JPY. US equities are very weak and appear prime for more losses. This should weigh on carry trades in general and drag NZD/JPY lower. Technically, the 50 and 100-day SMA represent very strong resistance and a clear level for a stop. I like going short here (80.95) with a stop at 81.35, trageting 80.15
Currency Strategist - Terri Belkas
My picks: Long NZD/USD
Expertise: Fundamentals Combined With Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1-3 days
Since mid-June NZD/USD has really done nothing but range-trade between 0.75 - 0.76, and given the pair's failure to make a substantial break below support, I think we could see the pair recover further. Daily oscillators, including MACD and RSI, have recently turned bullish and could target the confluence of the 38.2% fib of 0.8212 - 0.7446 and the 200 SMA at 0.7736/57. From a fundamental perspective, we have event risk on Monday from the release of New Zealand retail sales, which are likely to reflect weak consumption patterns in the economy. As a result, the news could weigh on NZD/USD and perhaps provide a better buying opportunity.
Currency Analyst - David Rodriguez
My picks: Long AUD/JPY
Expertise: Quantitative Analysis, System Trading, Trader Sentiment and Positioning
Average Time Frame of Trades: 2-10 weeks
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I've been advocating a short JPY position across the board as of late, and despite clear equity market volatility, the trade has held its own. I remain bullish the AUD/JPY for said reason, and I'm now waiting to see if it can sustain a break above the key 103.00-103.20 congestion zone. If price moves above said area and closes an hourly bar above, I think a quick profit can be made to 103.71, with eventual profit targets at previous spike-highs of 107.22. Only a meltdown in commodity markets would really change my bullish AUD bias.
Currency Analyst - John Kicklighter
My picks: Long AUDJPY
Expertise: Combining Money Management with Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades: 3 days - 1 week
The weekend liquidity drain is quickly rushing to the market; but there seem to be a few oppurtunities across the comm currencies. While AUDUSD has just pushed to new 25-year highs, breakouts are historically difficult to sustain through the weekend. Therefore, my interest in back with a pair that is still trading within its range: AUDJPY. A long-term rising trend was broken last month, but the past few week's has seen the direction fortified by a new rising trend (from the July 1st) that has shown its strength with a number of successful tests. The presence of a 61.8 percent fib (of the June 26th to July 1st swing low) boosts technical support around 102.30.
For a trade, my entry will be as close to the rising trend as possible (finding the best price with market orders) and an initial stop will be below the July 8th swing low at 101.40. Staggered profit targets will be a difficult concept for this pair because there is notable resistance at a 103.20 range high and a major falling trend that is in the same vacinity. Therefore, my first lot will look for a short-term gain equivalent to the initial stop distance. I'll play the second half of the trade more aggressively by looking for a breakout, but I'll also move the stop up to breakeven when the first lot meets its objective to limit risk. Since the dominate trend is still up, I will be putting the probabilities in my favor by looking for an upside move for the inevitable breakout.
Currency Analyst - John Rivera
My picks: Long NZD/USD
Expertise: Fundamentals Combined With Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades: 2-3 Days
I am bullish the Kiwi in the shortterm despite mounting recession fears. The pair has been trading in a tight range and is due to breakout. There lies significant support at the 0.7500 price levels which is where I will place my stop with a target of 0.7800. Next week's retail sales report is expected to show a decline, but the core reading will look to end consecutive months of declines which should ease some recession fears. Also, the quarterly inflation report is expected to be extremely hawkish with a jump of 1.4% from 0.7% the quarter prior, which may eliminate the odds of the RBNZ cutting rates for the remainder of the year.
DailyFX
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