DailyFX Trade Calls: Canadian Dollar
- Top Pick: Long AUD/CAD
- CAD: 5 out of 8 DailyFX Analysts Expect the Canadian Dollar to Weak
The Canadian dollar is like an uncertain teenager trying to figure out what matters most in life - oil, US growth or the health of their own economy. Tomorrow - Canadian employment numbers are due for release and that will provide alot more information on whether the slowdown in the US is really affecting Canada. Read on to find out how we think the Canadian dollar will trade!
Chief Currency Analyst - Kathy Lien
My picks: Long AUD/CAD
Expertise: Combining Technicals with Fundamentals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1-3 Days
The rally in the Canadian dollar yesterday was the biggest story in the currency market and over the next 24 hours, it will continue to be the currency in play. Labor market numbers are due for release. This one is a tough call. Even though the employment component of the IVEY PMI report dropped and consumer confidence fell to a 13 year low, it is hard to ignore the fact that manufacturing activity hit a 2 year high.
Australian employment numbers on the other hand were unambiguously strong. Therefore my favorite pick is going long AUD/CAD (now 9698) with a stop 9650, targeting 9780
Senior Currency Strategist - Boris Schlossberg
My picks: Long AUDCAD
Expertise: Fundamental
Average Time Frame of Trades: 12-24 hours
Overnight Australian employment data blew out expectations printing at 28K versus 10K forecast. The news suggests that the RBA will not even consider the possibility of easing until 2009. Meanwhile Canadian employment is coming tomorrow and given the problems in the North American markets may probe to be a disappointment. So a long AUDCAD for they day looks like an interesting trade
Technical Currency Analyst - Jaime Saettle
My picks: USDCAD Long, stop at 1.0045, target is above 1.0378
Expertise: Technical
Average Time Frame of Trades: As long as it works
The bottom line is that I remain bullish as long as price is above 1.0047. With price above there, I think that a triangle is complete. However, the depth of the drop from 1.0238 has introduced serious doubt. Still, the potential payoff is big compared to the risk.
Currency Analyst - Terri Belkas
My picks: Short USD/CAD
Expertise: Fundamentals Combined With Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1-3 days
Taking a look at the charts, I like USD/CAD to the downside. A former supporting trendline, which now serves as resistance, along with the 38.2% fib of 0.9817-1.0321 at 1.0129 has thus far blocked any recent rallies. Currently, USD/CAD is testing near-term support at 1.01 and at the very least, I think we'll see a move down to the confluence of the 50% fib and a daily pivot point at 1.0069/74. Additional support rests at 1.0050. Furthermore, from a longer-term perspective, USD/CAD has consistently held within a wide range of approximately 0.98 - 1.03 since the beginning of the year, and since we've already seen a test of the upper part, the next logical move is down. Nevertheless, there is heavy event risk on hand out of Canada on Friday, which leaves this best played as a very short-term trade that is closed before Friday morning.
Currency Analyst - David Rodriguez
My picks: USD/CAD Short
Expertise: Quantiative Analysis, System Trading, Trader Sentiment and Positioning
Average Time Frame of Trades: 2-10 weeks
I'm pretty happy with how my USD/CAD trade has been going. I was growing impatient with the pair's inability to make a sustained push off of resistance near the 1.0250 mark, but it looks like it may finally be headed in the right direction. The key thing to watch for now is whether it has enough momentum to carry through formidable support at current market levels (1.0100) and previous monthly lows at 1.0048. A drive below 1.0048 would likely result in a move towards 4-month lows at 0.9823.
Currency Analyst - John Kicklighter
My picks: Long AUDCAD
Expertise: Combining Money Management with Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades: 3 days - 1 week
The Canadian dollar - like its American counterpart - has fallen into range conditions across most of its liquid pairings. One exception however continues to be AUDCAD. A dominate rising trend that has been in place since the beginning of the year has kept momentum going for the pair. Recently, the pair was broke below a series of daily lows seen around 0.97, but the push did not result in a change of trend as the decline was quickly held up by the rising trend from January which happens to coincide with a 38.2% fib of the May 14th to June 9th upswing, while the 50-day SMA sits a little lower - all around 0.9610/25.
One of my primary trading rules is to follow the dominate trend; and clearly with AUDCAD, the higher trend is to the upside. Spot has recently rebounded from the test of the big support group, so I will put in orders around 0.9675 and 0.9650. Stops will be modestly below 0.96 to protect against a run to the even number, targets will be staggered to match risk and then to a much higher percentage of the range seen between 0.96 and 0.9840. If this trade isn't triggered over the next 36 hours, I will cancel the outstanding orders and revaluate price action and take the trade with market orders when spot reaches my desired levels.
Currency Analyst - Ilya Spivak
My picks: Short EURCAD
Expertise: Macro Fundamentals, Candlestick and Fibonacci Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1 week - 6 months
Having failed to break Triple Top resistance near 1.6180, EURCAD has moved lower to close below the upward-sloping support line based at the May 30th low. The decline now eyes a move to test the larger support line established in late December of last year at 1.5960. Short below 1.5965, set stop loss at 1.6093.
Currency Analyst - John Rivera
My picks: Long USD/CAD
Expertise: Fundamental And Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1-2 Days
I am looking to go long USD/CAD with a target of 1.0260 the current upper Bollinger Band. The recent Canadian dollar strength has seen the pair run into resistance at the convergence of the 50 Day SMA and bollinger band support. The recent decline in oil prices and the expected further weakening in the Canadian labor market should provide bearish loonie sentiment. The job report is expected to show job growth of 6,500 down from 8,400 the month prior, which will further demonstrate the impact of the U.S. slowdown on the Candian economy. However, I will keep an eye on the recent missle testing in Iran and its potential impact on oil prices, a rise in oil prices will drive the pair lower.
DailyFX
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