Dollar, Equity, Commodity Review

Euro and aussie have got ahead of themselves, and need to consolidate before the next move higher can be made on each, The trend is still long-Usd, and is now absorbing some equity buying that will test resolve. The major pairs are in 100 pip channels at the moment, with neutral momentum reads that will have to increase before sustainable price action can be seen. The initial rumblings of risk tolerance (Long Stocks & Commodities/Short 10 year Treasuries & Usd) are in play, and set up an interesting Wall Street session. Look for 1050 to hold as support on S/P trade to restrict Usd buying.

There is little upside momentum in any global market right now, and that is allowing the dollar index to hold above main support at 80.00. Oil and gold have moved sideways. The regional futures market opens/closes at 19:00, 02:00, 07:00, and 11:00 EST will be where most of the near-term price action will be contained this week, because of the very light economic calendar.

Dollar Index. The 4 hour trend is long. The Usd has been bought in the move to the safety of Usd based Treasuries. Traders now have separation in regard to the differing percentage moves that are being made on each pair. Take care going long as the global markets re-connect the dots and tenuously buy the Usd in-line with the selling of stocks and commodities. The 4 hour global market trends are favoring the short side of risk, and the long side of the dollar, however, that looks a little extended right now. Favor a reversal to support.

Equity Futures. The 4 hour trend is short across the global equity market. S&P holding 1050 support may instigate an oversold bounce this week, ahead of a quiet week of red flag releases. The Usd is now moving up at the same percentage rate that stocks are moving down, but momentum in all global markets is light right now. Favor a straddle, or long bounce.

Crude Oil. The 4 hour trend is short. Oil was recently trading at $71.50 per barrel after containing the buying seen in the previous sessions at $78. Price action dropped down to test daily chart lows at $69.45 recently, but could not hold there. The long speculative interest in crude oil trade banked profit recently and in doing so aided the long side of Usd near-term buying. Favor a straddle.

Gold Bullion. The 4 hour trend is short. Gold Bullion has held above $1,040 support, and the precious metal has a road-block of resistance above at $1100. Over the last week of trade gold has been in an $80 range, following the equity markets lower. To the downside, the next important support area is at $1025.00. Favor a straddle.

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