EUR/GBP Revisiting the Big Picture

• Daily: The EUR/GBP has completed invalidated the Bullish wave count we had been assessing the market with. Instead the market looks to be in a full Gartley retracement, which would be complete at the 0.86 (76.8% retracement).
• This swing projection is in the short-term and may be reached by next week, if the market slows down the decline. Otherwise, it may be reached by the end of this week.
• Weekly and Monthly: Now that the long-term bullish outlook is invalidated, the market has started to follow the long-term outlook posted before the New Year.
• Although the recent bearish action invalidates a long-term bullish case, ultra-long term (2-3 year outlook can still be bullish). The 1/2 to 1-year outlook however is bearish.
• A possible wave count puts the current decline to the 0.80 area around summer-fall time. This would be a completion of a bullish Gartley.
• If it stays above 0.82, the current wave count is correct. If it goes below substantially, for example reaches 0.79, then the count might need to be adjusted (see alt.count).
• Daily: Looking back at the daily, it appears the 0.8600 area would have some support and the stochastic is already oversold. There may be a correction rally in the upcoming weeks.
• So the long-term outlook is bearish towards the 0.80 area.
• ultra-long-term outlook is bullish if market bottoms around 0.80.
• intermediate-term is bullish if 0.8600 area sees bottoming action.
• short-term bearish towards 0.8600.

Capital Market Services, L.L.C.
www.cmsfx.com

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All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.