Euro Could Fall Against Commodity Currencies

The Euro may head lower from the top of long term ranges against the EURCAD, EURAUD, and EURNZD.

EURGBP

5 waves up from the January 2007 low at .6535 and daily RSI rolling over from above 70 suggest that a large corrective decline is underway from .8187. The Fibonacci zone does not begin until .7556. Near term, price should remain below .8006.

EURCHF

5 waves up from 1.5326 suggests that the longer term trend has turned up. The decline from 1.6376 stopped just shy of the 61.8% of 1.5326-1.6376 and today’s candle is a hammer (bullish reversal candle pattern). These are signs of a reversal.

EURCAD

The big picture shows a range playing out as possibly a triangle since 2000. Under this scenario, the pair should be headed lower in wave D of the triangle towards 1.40 over the next number of months. 1.5420-1.5725 is potential resistance.

EURAUD

The EURAUD broke above the 2004 high today and traded as high as 1.8167 before reversing. On intraday charts, it is possible to count 5 waves up from 1.6047. A correction may be underway. Support does not begin until 1.7351 but a deeper decline to former 4th wave at 1.6853 is possible

EURNZD

The is vulnerable weakness over the next few months to complete wave E of a triangle that began in 1992. The decline could be significant and retrace as much as half (or more) of the advance from 1.6326

DailyFX

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