Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

EUR/USD closed slightly lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term bottom might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted. If it renews this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the July-September rally crossing is the next downside target.

USD/JPY closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If it renews this month's decline, last August's low crossing is the next downside target.

GBP/USD closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing is the next upside target.

USD/CHF closed higher on Thursday due to short covering while extending last week's trading range. A late-day rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. However, stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If it extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing is the next upside target.

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