Forex Technical Update

Euro: Euro formed a bearish reversal bar in yesterday as it plummeted 228 pips from the day's high of 1.5909 as ECB chief Trichet remained unbiased regarding future rate hikes and NFP data came as per expectations. The daily & Hourly stochastic show a downmove while the 4-Hourly has corrected in the oversold region. Immediate support comes in at 1.5665 (21 Daily EMA, 100 4-Hourly EMA) where longs can be initiated for 50 pips. (Eur/Usd: 1.5720).

Pound: Pound weakened 137 pips to touch a low of 1.9799 before closing little stronger at 1.9832. The daily & Hourly stochastic show a fall while the 4-Hourly has corrected in the oversold region. Immediate support comes in at 1.9795 (Retracement of recent rise in daily chart) where longs can be initiated for intraday gain of 45 pips. (Gbp/Usd: 1.9830).

Yen: USD/JPY surged 115 pips from the day's low of 105.77 taking support from the 100 & 55 daily EMA. The hourly & daily stochastic show further upmove as the pair is currently taking support at 106.60 level (21 daily EMA, 21 & 200 Hourly) which if holds the pair can move up to 107.08 levels (61.8% retracement of the recent fall). (Usd/Jpy: 106.77).

Rupee: Rupee ended the day at 43.30/31 against the dollar, thus weakening 13 paise from the previous close at 43.17/18 levels as FII's continued to pull out amidst negative equity market. Forward premia on near-term contracts also dipped, with the one-month contract ending the day at 6.75% (7.38%). The six-month contract slipped to 4.54% (4.94%) while the annual contract ended the day at 4.01% (4.24%). (Usd/Inr: 43.21)

Swiss Franc: USD/CHF pair showed a good recovery yesterday as the pair gained 171 pips to touch an intra day high 1.0282. The daily and hourly stochastic show strong buying pressure while the 4-hourly shows a fall. Immediate resistance comes at 1.0304 (21 daily & 100 4-hrly EMA) hence an upmove till those levels can be expected. However a break of 1.0130 (50% retracement & horizontal support) seems to be unlikely. (Usd/Chf-1.0247).

Australian Dollar: Aussie remained range bound in yesterday's session as it traded in a range of 50 pips to touch an intra day high of 0.9632. The daily and 4-hourly stochastic shows a strong buying pressure while the hourly shows a steep fall hence a retracement till 0.9570 (55 4-hrly & 200 hourly EMA) can be expected while on the upside strong resistance comes at 0.9647 (trend line resistance) which should hold. (Aud/Usd: 0.9623)

Gold: Gold weakened $19 in yesterday's session as it dipped to a low of $927. A reversal bar of bearish divergence is seen in the daily chart which is further supported by falling stochastic hence a retracement upto $922 (55 4-hourly & 200 daily EMA) can be expected in next few trading sessions. (Gold: $934.40)

Dollar index: Dollar index is currently at 72.64, 18 points higher than previous levels of 72.46. Medium term target 75.00.

RCPL FOREX
www.rcplforex.com

DISCLAIMER

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.