Forex Technical Update

Euro: Euro surged 130 pips from yesterday's low of 1.4731 as USD came under pressure. The hourly stochastic is showing a smooth upside while the 4-hourly is overbought. Euro is trading close to the resistance of 1.4886 (55 4-hourly EMA) and decisive break of this level can take Euro to 1.5020 (38.2% Retracement and 100 4-hourly EMA). Opportunities to initiate shorts could be considered at those levels. (Eur/Usd: 1.4872).

Pound: Cable was volatile within 100 pips in the UK session yesterday and later strengthened and surpassed 1.87 mark to touch a high of 1.8790. Overall cable witnessed a move of 185 pips. The hourly & daily charts shows further buying pressure while the 4-hourly is overbought. Cluster support comes in around 1.8670–1.8690 levels, holding above which Cable can witness an upside first upto 1.8825 and then 1.9040 level. Create longs around 1.8720 levels for 80-90 pips with stops below 1.8640. (Gbp/Usd: 1.8747).

Yen: The USD/JPY pair weakened almost 170 pips yesterday touching the low of 108.13. Mild recovery is seen as the pair is back to 109 levels tinkling the 21 Daily and 55 Weekly EMA. Major stochastic is showing a downward bias for the pair while the 4 –hourly is heading for the overbought region. Firm break of 108.35 (200 4-hourly EMA) can pave way for 107 levels. Initiate shorts around 109.30 levels. (Usd/Jpy: 108.91).

Rupee: Rupee that threatened to breach the 44-mark per dollar on Wednesday, staged a sharp recovery on Thursday gaining of 20 paisa yesterday to close at 43.51 on broad base dollar weakness. Rupee touched the high of 43.31 today backed by rising oil prices and growing inflation. Premia on forward contracts saw a sharp rise with 6-month premia ending at 3.89% (3.02%) & 12 month premia ended at 3.11% (2.60%). (Usd/Inr: 43.32).

Swiss Franc: Swissy strengthened against USD after better than expected trade balance to touch the lows of 1.0842 witnessing 155 pips move. The Daily & Hourly charts shows further downside while 4-Hourly is oversold. Currently, Swissy is clinging around the 55 4-Hourly EMA at 1.0870, breaking which it can strengthen to 1.0775 levels (100 4-hourly EMA). Initiate longs at those levels targeting 70 pips. (Usd/Chf-1.0875).

Australian Dollar: Aussie was quite volatile as it saw 158 pips movement touching the highs at 0.8807 in the US session. The 4-Hourly chart is over-bought while the Hourly and Daily is yet to correct in the overbought region. Aussie is taking resistance at 55 4-Hourly around 0.8790 levels which if broken can pave way towards the resistance zone at 0.8930 (100 4-Hourly EMA). Initiate shorts at those levels for 60 pips.(Aud/Usd-0.8722).

Gold: Gold recovered sharply gaining $40 against USD yesterday posting a high at $839.80 as the oil prises also shot up more than 5% to touch $121 per barrel. Gold has breached the resistance of 55 EMA 4 hourly at $822.20 which could now turn into a support. Gold may rise further to test the next resistance at $847.28 amidst weakening Dollar. The sentiment of Gold looks bullish as the 4-hourly has flattened in the overbought region. (Gold: $815.60).

Dollar index : Dollar index is shedding the entire week's strength by trading at 76.34 currently with stochastic at 75.98% clearly indicating selling pressure.

RCPL FOREX
www.rcplforex.com

DISCLAIMER

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.