Forex Technical Update

Euro: Euro's upmove was capped at 1.4808 levels yesterday before resuming the decline. Currently trading at 1.4715 levels with the 4-hourly and daily stochastic indicating further selling pressure. The consensus of Germany data lined up for the day is also disappointing which can send Euro first to 1.4650 levels and beyond to 1.45 levels (21 Monthly EMA). Initiating longs there could be estimated. (Eur/Usd: 1.4718).

Pound: Cable picked up some momentum as it surged 185 pips from the day's low of 1.8404 yesterday despite UK markets remaining closed. The currency retraced to the extent of 50% of the recent fall and took resistance from 21 4-hourly EMA before shedding almost 120 pips. Overall bias continues to remain on the downside with the 4-hourly and daily charts showing further selling pressure. Initiate shorts at higher levels. (Gbp/Usd: 1.8467).

Yen: The USD/JPY pair shed almost 127 pips yesterday to gain support around the 21 Daily EMA at 109 levels. Strong resistance comes in at 110.30 levels (horizontal trendline) against which further consolidation can be witnessed. The daily and 4-hourly stochastic shows buying pressure and only if 110.30 resistance is taken off decisively, an upmove upto 111 levels could be seen. Initiate longs at lower levels. (Usd/Jpy: 109.70).

Rupee: The domestic currency was trading around 43.80 around the close of trading yesterday. Rupee has breached the 44-mark today mainly on account of strengthening dollar and month-end dollar demand by several corporate. Forward premia on near-term contracts also dipped, with the one-month contract ending the day at 4.17% (5.23%). The six-month contract dipped to 2.99%(3.84%) while the annual contract ended the day at 2.57% (3.09%). (Usd/Inr: 44.04).

Swiss Franc: Usd/Chf pair weakened almost 110 pips from the day's high of 1.1031 facing strong resistance from the 50% retracement in weekly charts. The pair closed a little higher at 1.0958 yesterday and the 4-hourly and daily indicates slight upside. The resistance continues to be at 1.1045 levels (50% Retracement) and holding below these levels can witness some consolidation. However, a decisive break of 1.1045 could take the pair to 1.13 levels (100 Weekly EMA). (Usd/Chf-1.0987).

Australian Dollar: Aussie remained weak, though it traded within a thin range of 75 pips yesterday after capping the day's gain at 0.8688. Aussie further plunged to the levels of 0.8559 early this morning with the Daily & 4-hourly charts yet to correct to oversold region. However, the Hourly chart is extremely oversold. Downside could be curbed around 0.8502 levels (61.8% of the rise in weekly) where initiating longs for 80 pips can be considered. (Aud/Usd-0.8590).

Gold: Gold traded in a narrow range of $10 yesterday touching a low of $815.60 Immediate resistance comes in at $838 levels (100 4-hourly EMA) with daily stochastic in the overbought region. The 4-hourly and hourly is also turning to indicate selling pressure and a pull-down upto $800 levels (minor support) could be expected. Breaking of $800 may further push the yellow metal towards $770. (Gold: $820.10).

Dollar index : Dollar index is still hovering around yesterday's levels of 77.10 with stochastic being at 83.93% which is neutrally poised near the over-bought region. Important resistance come in at 78 levels for DI.

RCPL FOREX
www.rcplforex.com

DISCLAIMER

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.