Forex Technical Update

Euro: The pair lost 200 pips from the days high of 1.3785 in the US session yesterday. We expect the pair to take support at the recent low of 1.3435. A break of this level may take it further to the 55 monthly EMA at 1.3360. The scenario still remains bearish for the pair as trade balance for US is expected to be on the higher side. Immediate resistance for the pair is expected at 1.3670 levels (100 Hourly EMA). (Eur/Usd:1.3540).

Pound: Lower than expected trade balance and continued dollar strength has dragged cable down to 1.6900 levels. The overall scenario for the pair still remains bearish and sell is recommended at every resistance. Immediate resistance for the pair is expected at the 21 hourly EMA at 1.7080 and then at the 21 4-hourly EMA at 1.7250. With all major EMA’s broken on the downside the next support for the pair can only be seen at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement on monthly charts at 1.6550. (Gbp/Usd: 1.6930).

Yen: Japan remained away when major global banks had a co-ordinated 50 bps points rate cut on Wednesday which made yen appreciate close to 200 pips and touched the lows of 97.91 on Thursday as the Dow also went below the 9k mark. The charts are indicating further downside for the pair as the risk aversion continues. The pair can retest the medium term low of 95.70 levels. (Usd/Jpy 98.88).

Rupee: Rupee made a fresh six year low of 48.85 on Wednesday but immediately recovered as the major global banks cut interest rate which made it to finally close at 47.99. Local currency made an all time low this morning at 49.32 which was mainly because of fund outflow & crashing stocks. Looking at the 19% fall of rupee against dollar this year, Rs. 50 against the greenback does not look far. (Usd/Inr: 49.03).

Swiss Franc: The pair traded in a narrow range of 100 pips touching a high of 1.1340 and a low of 1.1230. Support for the pair is seen at the 21 daily EMA at 1.1170 levels where longs could be generated targeting upto 70 pips on the upside. Resistance on the upside is expected to first come in around 1.440 levels. (Usd/Chf: 1.1220).

Australian Dollar: Aussie witnessed huge volatility as it traded in a wide range of 500 pips yesterday plunging from 0.7130 to a low of 0.6628. The recent low of 0.6436 becomes a good support for the pair on the downside. Considering the amount of fall it witnessed in the last two days with the hourly and 4-hourly charts approaching the oversold region slight pull back from the current levels could be witnessed. Resistance on the upside is seen at the 21 hourly EMA around 0.6850 levels. (Aud/Usd-0.6586).

Gold: Gold surged $43 yesterday in the late US session yesterday from the lows of $881.20. The 4-hourly and the daily charts are approaching the overbought region. Immediate resistance is seen at $926.50 (today’s high) breaking which can take yellow metal to $937.50 whereas on the downside support comes in at $889.78 (21 4-hourly EMA). (Gold: $913.65).

Dollar index: Dollar index is trading at 81.71 levels with the stochastic flat in the overbought region at 88.93%.

India Forex
http://www.indiaforex.in

DISCLAIMER

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.