Forex Technical Update

Euro: Euro gave up most of its gains in the US session as it plunged more than 200 pips from the highs of 1.3770 yesterday. Fed’s decision to buy stakes in big banks helped dollar maintain its strength against most currencies. 55 4-hourly EMA at 1.3720 remains a good resistance for the pair on the upside which if broken may take it to the next resistance of 21 daily EMA(1.3920). Volatile trade is expected in the European session as UK unemployment and Europe CPI index for the month will be announced.. (Eur/Usd:1.3590).

Pound: Cable witnessed a good recovery in the last two trading sessions as it surged to 1.7630 levels. However, in the early US session yesterday this rally was restricted and cable lost some of its gains tumbling down to 1.7380 levels. The hourly and daily charts are reaching the overbought region while the 4-hourly stochastic is now oversold and indicating buying pressures. Immediate resistance is expected to stay around 1.7620 (100 4-hourly) where intraday shorts can be considered for 70-80 pips. Alternatively, buys can be considered around 1.74 levels for intraday. (Gbp/Usd: 1.7450).

Yen: Usd/Jpy pair surged further to touch the highs of 103.05 after the release of bad Japanese trade balance & current account yesterday, however, the pair lost most of its gains and is currently trading around 101.60 levels. The Hourly & Daily charts are showing slight upside while the 4-Hourly charts are due for correction in the oversold region. Sustained trading above 102 levels can bring a test of 103 levels again (100 4-hourly EMA). Intraday longs can be initiated at 101 levels (38.2% retracement of recent rise in Hourly) for 80 pips. (Usd/Jpy 101.65).

Rupee: The weakening Asian currencies pulled the local currency back to 48.40 levels today morning. The rupee shed all its yesterday’s gain as the investors expected more fund outflow due to the weak stocks. The sentiment of the rupee still looks weak as the measures taken worldwide might take some time for it to recover. Also cash conditions still looks tight incase RBI were to sell dollars to check the rupee's fall. (Usd/Inr: 48.41).

Swiss Franc: The pair moved in a narrow sideways range of 100 pips yesterday touching 1.1380 on the upside. The pair was seen taking support at the 200 hourly EMA at 1.1280. We expect a sideways movement in the pair again today. Resistance on the upside is expected to come in at the recent high of 1.1480. (Usd/Chf: 1.1355).

Australian Dollar: The pair moved in a wide range of 300 pips yesterday as it plunged from the high of 0.7235 to 0.6934 levels. The pair is currently trading just above the 21 4-hourly support around 0.6920 levels. It is expected to take resistance at the 55 four hourly EMA(0.7130) as the hourly is reaching overbought. However, with the 4-hourly stochastic in the oversold region, a surge upto 0.7130 levels could be witnessed. (Aud/Usd-0.6970).

Gold: Gold traded within the range of $21 yesterday touching the highs of $853.60 and a low of $831.90. The hourly and 4-hourly stochastic is showing slight upward pressure with the daily chart also reaching oversold region. The immediate cluster resistance is seen at $856 levels (21 & 200 4hourly EMA) whereas on the downside $834 forms a strong support. (50% retracement form the high of $931.03). (Gold: $845.15).

Dollar index : DI continues its sideways trading at 81.87 levels with the stochastic showing slight downside at 77.04%.

India Forex
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DISCLAIMER

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.