Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, October 15
Remaining above 1.3485 keeps EURUSD structure bullish. A clear 5 wave rally from last week's low is evident in the GBPUSD, indicating that the larger trend has turned up.
EURUSD
The beginning of a larger move is usually ugly and unclear. Such is the case here with the EURUSD. Still, wave rules have not been broken in the count presented above and there is no change to this morning's technicals when I wrote that “I am treating the advance from 1.3257 as a series of 1st and 2nd waves. This count is valid as long as price is above 1.3485.' 1.3546 (78.6%) may provide support. Euro traders may wish to take a look at Euro crosses for long term trades.
USDJPY
Resistance has been strong the past few days near 103, psychological resistance as well as the 50% of the decline from 108.07. This is also where wave a and c equal (if the rally from 97.88 is indeed an a-b-c advance). A bearish bias is warranted against the recent highs (103.10).
GBPUSD
The rally from 1.6775 is an impulse (5 waves) and a corrective decline is underway towards the Fibonacci zone, which begins at 1.7301. 1.7259 is the 4th wave of 2 less degrees and also potential support. We'll look to identify the end of the corrective decline from 1.7635 in the next day or two
USDCHF
5 waves up from 1.0686 and 3 waves down to former support is bullish for the USDCHF. The alternate is still bullish, but the next leg up advance would not occur until a drop below 1.1125 that completes a larger correction from 1.1493.
USDCAD
The USDCAD drop from 1.2132 has held short term trendline support. A closer look at the decline reveals that it is an impulse though and that the line will most likely be broken. Near term, expect an advance into the Fibonacci zone (1.1612-1.1808) before weakness resumes into the 1.0962-1.1176 area.
AUDUSD
The AUDUSD advance from .6326 is in just 3 waves to this point, leaving the AUDUSD vulnerable to weakness and a drop below .6326. However, it is still possible that a 5th wave does take hold from near current price and completes an impulse sequence. A bullish outcome is favored as long as price is above .6790. COT numbers favor AUDUSD strength.
NZSDUSD
With 5 waves potentially complete from above .82, a correction should reach the former 4th wave (defended by the 50%) at .70. The advance could accelerate in the coming days
DailyFX
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