Futures and FX Technical Analysis

FX Market as of 9:30 GMT (5:00 AM EST)

AUD/USD (Australian Dollar vs US Dollar)

Australian Dollar remains confined to a narrow downward sloping channel that dominated the price action since July with the latest price action seeing the pair briefly touching the psychologically important 0.8000 handle. As US dollar bulls regroup and push the pair below 0.8000 figure, a further move to the downside will most likely see the Aussie retreat toward .7892, a level marked by the Aug 20 spike lows. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see AUD/USD head lower and test the bids around 0.7820, a level defended by Aug 16 lows, with further support seen around .7676, a level defended by the Aug 17 spike low established during August of 2007 carry trade liquidation

NZD/USD (Australian Dollar vs US Dollar)

New Zealand dollar continued to consolidate within a tight trading range as pair remains confined to a downward sloping channel, that dominated the price action since the middle of July, As US dollar bulls once again take over the price action and push the pair below 0.6600 figure, a further move to the downside will most likely see the targeting bids around the psychologically important 0.6500 handle, a level defended by the Oct 3, 2006 lows at 0.6482. A further move to the downside will most likely see Kiwi retreat toward 0.6418, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the 0.5930-0.8214 New Zealand dollar rally.

Equities

S&P 500 September Emini Futures Contract (ES U8)

Emini tumbled toward the trading range's lower boundary as equity bulls failed to keep the contract above the 1250 handle. A further move to the downside will most likely see the contract extend its declines toward psychologically important 1200 handle, a level marked by the July 15 lows and the end of the May-Jul equity selloff. A successful break to the downside will most likely see the Emini head lower and test the bids around 1185, a level defended by the combination 50.0 Fib of the 788-1587 S&P rally and Oct 2005 swing lows. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the equity bears target the psychologically important 1150 handle, a level marked by the May 13, 2005 spike low and with further support observed around 1140 figure, Apr 2005 consolidation range lows

Interest Rates

Eurodollar June 09 Futures Contract (GE M9)

Eurodollar futures continued to tick higher as price action remained confined to a tight consolidation range within an upward sloping channel that dominated the price action since June. In case the contract continues to head higher a move above 97.20, a level marked by the Sept 5 spike high will most likely see the bulls extend upside momentum and target offers around psychologically important 97.50 handle, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib of the Apr-Jun Eurodollar rally. A further move on the part of the Eurodollar bulls will most likely see the contract break higher and aim for 97.68, a level defended by Apr 1 high

NYMEX/COMEX Futures

Crude Oil October Futures Contract (CL V8)

Crude oil futures fells after oil bears once again pushed the contract below 105.00 figure. A further move to the downside will most likely see the contract test bids around the psychologically important 100.00 handle, a level defended by the number of key support zones, with most notable levels including 50.0 Fib of the 50.00-147.00 Crude oil rally, a Nov 2007-Feb 2008 consolidation high and March 20 swing low. A break below the psychologically important 100.00 handle will most likely see the contract drop lower and test the bids around 95.00 figure. Further major support seen around 85-87 price zone with combination of 2007-Feb 2008 consolidation lows, 61.8 Fib of the 50.53-147.72 Crude oil rally and 1.00 Fib extension of the July-Aug oil selloff.

Natural Gas October Futures Contract (NG V8)

Natural gas futures remained volatile as both sides struggled to gain control, with price action remaining locked into 7.000-7.700 consolidation range. In case bears manage to gain an upper hand and push the contract lower, a further move to the downside will most likely see the contract break below 7.500 figure and target recent lows around psychologically important 7.000 handle. A sustained break to the downside will most likely see the contract head lower and target the bids around 6.600, a level defended by the Oct 2007 consolidation lows, with further support seen below psychologically important 6.000 handle at 5.720, a Sep 2007 contract low

Gold December Futures Contract (GC Z8)

Gold futures fell below the psychologically important 800 handle as traders hammered the bids and pushed the contract toward recent lows at 778.00 figure, established by the Aug 15 low. A successful break to the downside will most likely see the metal head lower and target the bids around the psychologically important 750.00 handle. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the Gold bear push the contract toward 730.00, a level defended by the May 2006 high and 78.6 Fib of the 646.00-1035.00 Gold rally with further support seen around the psychologically important 700.00 handle, a level defended by the Feb-Oct 2007 consolidation high and 1.500 Fib extension of the 1033-946 Gold selloff.

CBOT Grain Futures

Corn December Futures contract (C Z8)

Corn futures made a fresh low with the contract briefly trading below 5.300 figure before retreating high as once again bulls managed to hold the bids above 5.376, a level defended by the 61.8 Fib of the 3.754-7.992 Corn rally. As Corn bears attempt to push the contract lower, a further move to the downside will most likely see the grain target bids around the psychologically important 5.000 handle, a level defended by the March 24 and Aug 12 lows. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the contract extended its decline toward 4.840 figure, a level marked by the Jan 2008 tweezers candlestick pattern low. Further support is observed around 4.663, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the 3.754-7.992 Corn rally.

Wheat December Futures Contract (W Z8)

Wheat futures continued to retreat as contract fell below the psychologically important 7.500 figure. A further move to the downside will most likely see the contract test the bids around 7.100, a level defended by the Oct-Dec of 2007 consolidation range high. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely seeing the traders test defenses around the psychologically important 7.000 handle. A further move to the lower will most likely see the bears push the contract lower and target 6.500 figure, a level defended by the combination of the 78.6 Fib of the Apr 2007-Apr 2008 Wheat rally and Oct-Dec of 2007 consolidation range low.

Soybean November Futures Contract (S X8)

Soybean bulls continued to put up vigorous resistance as contract held the bids around 11.700, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib of the Apr-June Soybean rally, with double hammer candle stick pattern establishing support at the current price levels. In case bears manage to push the contract below 11.500 handle a level defended by the 50.0 Fib of the October 2006 - June2008 Soybean rally at 11.303, a sustained move to the downside will most likely see contract break the neck of the large Head and Shoulders pattern, which remains intact on both daily and weekly charts. A further momentum to the downside will most likely see the bears push the contract toward psychologically important 11.000 handle and with a break target bids around 10.500, a level marked by the Apr 1 spike low.

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