FX Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Comment: More signs that we are forming an interim low with a small 'spike low' yesterday. Again assuming we hold above 1.5350 for the rest of this week short-covering could easily take us up to 1.5700, shaking the complacent.
Strategy: Buy at 1.5485/1.5450; stop below 1.5350. Short term target 1.5550, then 1.5650/1.5700.
Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 1.5452 |
1.5500 |
| 1.5396 |
1.5571 |
| 1.5385 |
1.5600* |
| 1.5360* |
1.5650 |
| 1.5285* |
1.5700* |
GBPUSD
Comment: We are aware that our readers must see us as the boy who cried 'wolf', but yesterday's 'hammer' candle on Cable is the sort of sign we have been looking for. The pound is oversold, futures positions are ballooning, and consensus opinion is decidedly anti-UK. We shall now be watching for a reversal formation on the weekly chart either this week or next, possibly the two in conjunction with each other.
Strategy: Buy at 1.9470/1.9450; stop below 1.9350. Short term target 1.9600, eventually 1.9800.
Direction of Trade: ↗
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 1.9429 |
1.9500 |
| 1.9395/1.9388* |
1.9590 |
| 1.9361* |
1.9635* |
| 1.9350 |
1.9735 |
| 1.9337** |
1.9800* |
USDJPY
Comment: Rather dull as it toys with the fairly pivotal long term chart level around 105.50 in what should be part of a larger interim topping formation. The move should fizzle out very late this morning and then we should drift slowly lower.
Strategy: Sell at 104.85, adding to 105.30; stop above 105.75. Short term target 104.00, eventually 102.50.
Direction of Trade: →↘
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 104.50 |
105.30 |
| 104.00 |
105.45 |
| 103.39 |
105.59/105.70** |
| 103.00 |
106.00 |
| 102.57* |
106.65 |
EUR/JPY
Comment: Squeezing higher by more than we had expected. If not today then next week we feel prices should top and then drift back down to 159.00.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 162.60; stop above 163.25. Short term target 161.00 then 159.00 medium term.
Direction of Trade: →↘
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 162.00 |
162.70 |
| 161.70 |
162.80/162.90* |
| 161.00 |
163.10* |
| 160.60 |
163.50 |
| 160.00 |
163.90 |
Mizuho Corporate Bank
Disclaimer
The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.
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