FX Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Comment: Collapsing all the way back down towards September's low at 1.3882. Expect the Euro to try and form an interim base today so that we have a potential ‘double bottom' on the chart.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.3950; stop below 1.3840. Short term target 1.4100, then 1.4400
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 1.3931 " |
1.4 |
| 1.3913 |
1.404 |
| 1.3882** |
1.41 |
| 1.384 |
1.4175 |
| 1.3765 |
1.423 |
GBPUSD
Comment: Dropping by more than we had thought and trying to cling above September's low at 1.7445. Expect Cable to try and stabilise above here again today and tomorrow.
Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.7685; stop below 1.7600. Short term target 1.7900, maybe 1.8125.
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 1.7635 " |
1.7729 |
| 1.754 |
1.78 |
| 1.747 |
1.7878 |
| 1.7445* |
1.792 |
| 1.74 |
1.7877 |
USDJPY
Comment: Little to add as we consolidate below 107.00. If we can hold below the 26-day moving average at 106.60 bearish pressure should increase for a drop to 105.25 and maybe a collapse to 103.50 as early as Friday afternoon.
Strategy: Sell at 105.80/106.20; stop well above 106.60. Short term target 105.35, then 103.50
Direction of Trade: →↘
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 105.68 " |
106.29 |
| 105.33 |
106.54 |
| 105 |
107.00* |
| 104.5 |
107.5 |
| 103.97 |
108.04** |
EUR/JPY
Comment: Back down to test September's low at 147.00 but we doubt we will manage a sustained break lower today. Act cautiously but be ready to re-sell on a weekly close below 148.00. This might precipitate even higher one-month implied volatility so that it rallies to the 1999 high at 23.00%.
Strategy: Sell at 147.50 but only if prepared to add to 149.00; stop above 151.65. Short term target 147.00, 145.00 further out.
Direction of Trade: →↘
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 147.38 " |
148.7 |
| 147.00** |
149 |
| 146 |
150 |
| 145.75 |
150.58 |
| 145.00* |
151.57* |
Mizuho Corporate Bank
Disclaimer
The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.
|
