FX Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Comment: Everyone's current 'pet hate' and though bearish momentum is still terribly strong it does smack of a very crowded trade with almost record futures volume. Be careful and watch for signs of a dramatic reversal, so that we form a big 'spike low' probably this week.
Strategy: Attempt tiny longs at 1.3715; stop below 1.3600. Short term target 1.3750, then 1.3850.
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 1.3643 " |
1.373 |
| 1.3621 |
1.375 |
| 1.3585* |
1.38 |
| 1.35 |
1.3850* |
| 1.3400* |
1.4027* |
GBPUSD
Comment: Trading under the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the lowest price since May last year. Nothing yet but we continue to wait and watch for signs of forming a sort of 'spike low'. Nerves of steel and patience needed, something futures traders obviously don't have as almost record volume and soaring open interest suggest many are rushing in.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.5635; stop well below 1.5500. Short term target 1.5750/1.5800
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 1.5600 " |
1.566 |
| 1.5565 |
1.5675 |
| 1.5535* |
1.575 |
| 1.55 |
1.58 |
| 1.54 |
1.5900* |
USDJPY
Comment: Little to add as we hesitate between 61% and 50% Fibonacci support and above the bottom edge of a good-sized Ichimoku 'cloud'. Expect more of the same this morning, maybe all day, with rallies hopefully capped by the 9-day moving average at 89.92. Note that yesterday's extraordinarily tiny range and 'doji' candle is not a healthy sign. Rather it indicates great instability at current levels. We continue to favour an eventual break lower.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 89.55; stop well above 90.00. Short term target 89.20, then 88.80/88.55
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 89.15 " |
89.62 |
| 89 |
89.89/90.00* |
| 88.8 |
90.25 |
| 88.55* |
90.6 |
| 88.25* |
91.28* |
EURJPY
Comment: Hovering at the bottom of 'channel' support. This pair is still very oversold and bearish momentum has eased slightly. Expect more hesitation above 121.50 today and potentially a short squeeze towards 125.00.
Strategy: Possibly attempt the tiniest of shorts at 123.00; stop above 123.55. First target 121.55, maybe Friday's low at 120.70.
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support |
Resistance |
| 122.20 " |
123 |
| 121.55* |
123.33* |
| 121 |
124 |
| 120.70* |
124.6 |
| 120 |
125 |
Mizuho Corporate Bank
Disclaimer
The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.
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