FX Thoughts for the Day
USD-CHF @ 1.0143/47....Holding Long
R: 1.0180-90 / 1.0240
S: 1.0140 / 1.0100 / 1.0040
After falling to a low of 0.9637 last week, USD-CHF had a sharp rally, which left a biggish wick on the weekly and the 3-day Candles. This indicates a possible low, which would hold in the next couple of weeks, has already been seen and dips are likely to see buyers in the next few days. As such, there could be a rally towards 1.0325 or 1.0375. On the downside the Supports are in at 1.0100 and 1.0050. We are positive on the pair atleast in the first part of the week.
Today the immediate Support is at 1.0140. Below that the Support is at 1.0100. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.0180-90 and then at 1.0240. We are holding a Long position.
Holding:
- USD 10K Long at 1.0137, SL 1.0070, TP 1.0250
GBP-USD @ 1.9822/27....Bearish Biased
R: 1.9880-85 / 1.9933-40
S: 1.9790 / 1.9740
GBP-USD hit a high of 2.0276 last Tuesday, before closing with substantial losses in the week and has seen some follow-through selling in the early Asian session today. It is likely to see further selling this week possibly towards 1.9500, which comes on a trendline on the weekly chart seen at http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpcandle.shtml . A break below that may not be seen this week. However it is broken, then a fall towards 1.9400 would be seen. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.9900 and 2.0000, rallies towards which is likely to see sellers.
The pair hit a low of 1.9758 before bouncing back intraday. The immediate Resistance is at 1.9880, which could hold. A move above that could result in a rally towards 1.9933-40, the statistically projected Max High on the daily. On the downside the Support would be at 1.9790 and 1.9740. We are removing our sell order currently however we still favour downside in the pair.
AUD-USD @ 0.9037/42...Overall Downtrend
R: 0.9050-50 / 0.9111
S: 0.9020 / 0.8970
AUD-USD had a sharp fall last week to close with substantial losses. This week the pair is again likely to remain pressured and a fall towards 0.8865 likely, which comes on a trendline on the Weekly Candles as shown in the second chart at http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml . A break below that is unlikely. On the upside the Resistance for the week is at 0.9170 and at 0.9250.
After seeing a low of 0.8978, the pair has seen a nice rally today. This is soon likely to get Resistance at 0.9050-60. Above that the important Resistance would be at 0.9111, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Support is at 0.9020 and 0.8970. The overall directional view for the pair is bearish while it remains below 0.9070. A close above that would call for a review.
Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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