FX Thoughts for the Day

USD-CHF @ 1.0130/5.... Range broken

R: 1.0170-80 / 1.0250-275 / 1.0300-15
S: 1.0135-30 / 1.0100-090 / 1.0075-50

The range of 1.0131-1.0232 has been broken on the downside and could now lead to a further dip to 1.0100-090, in the day. Test of parity in the weeks to come is possible. The US NFP is expected to release soon hereafter and could hasten the fall from here, as the expectation is for a number lower than estimates with a disappointing ADP Nonfarm released yesterday.
To follow the US NFP click on:

http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usnfp.shtml

Support from here is expected at 1.0100, and 1.0070-50 for today. Resistance will be faced on an upward move towards 1.0170; however, such a rally seems unlikely now.

GBP-USD @ 1.9886/91... Test of 1.9800-770 possible

R: 1.9925 / 1.9975-84 / 2.0000-10
S: 1.9850 / 1.9825 / 1.9800-770

Cable as per expectation has faced a stiff Resistance at 1.9977-85 and fell sharply in the day to test 1.9850. A bounce to 1.9900 was seen from there.

For the day now, a further dip towards 1.9800 should not be surprising. However, 1.9790-70 is expected to provide strong Support. 1.9790-70 was where the market has faced Resistance before breaking out to test 2.00. Resistance is expected on a rally towards 1.9925 and beyond.

AUD-USD @ 0.9616/20...Tight trading range

R: 0.9625-35 / 0.9667-80 / 0.9695-700
S: 0.9600 / 0.9570-50 / 0.9520-00

The pair continues to whipsaw between 0.9600-0.9637 since morning. The overall bigger range of 0.9520-0.9650 thus was not tested in the day. In all probability it might not be tested in the US session as well. Between 0.9650 and 0.9650 there remains a higher possibility of a test of 0.9520 in the next few days.

Being careful ahead of the US NFP. Tomorrow being a Holiday in the US, the market is expected to have thin liquidity.

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.