FX Thoughts for the Day
USD-CHF @ 1.0530/35.... Focus on FOMC
R: 1.0550-60 / 1.0600 / 1.0650
S: 1.0500 / 1.0470 / 1.0450-30 / 1.0400
USD-CHF is now trading close to the Resistance at 1.0550. A break above is expected to be bullish, however, there are Resistances in the interval of 50 pips further ahead.
The focus is now on the US FOMC and the market could remain less volatile till the statement is released and interest rates declared. To follow the release click on: http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/calendar/calendar.shtml
No change in interest rate is expected this time, however, with concern over Crude prices and inflation overall in the economy, the focus of the US central bank may shift this time around. If it does and market start to discount a rate hike for later in the year itself, instead of early next year, the dollar may strengthen a good deal.
Where would this bullishness take the USD-CHF pair?
Possibly beyond 1.0650, with a target of 1.0800-850.
GBP-USD @ 1.9539/43... Seems oversold
R: 1.9600 / 1.9650-75 / 1.9700-20
S: 1.9525 / 1.9500 / 1.9450-9425
Cable has taken a deeper dip in the day, against our view of a small bounce that we felt could have been seen if the Support at 1.9570 held. As the Support gave way in the day, a test of 1.9525, low of the day has been seen.
For now, it seems that a bounce could materialize over the US session, as the chart seems a little oversold, specially the 4-hourly and the hourly. A rise to 1.9650-1.97 could be sold into.
AUD-USD @ 0.9167/70... RBA Statement
R: 0.9250 / 0.9275 / 0.9300 / 0.9350
S: 0.9150 / 0.9100 / 0.9000
The RBA speech this morning has taken a toll on the pair. Since then it has lost over 100 pips. In the week ahead there is pressure on it. The 3-day and the weekly chart is very bearish and indicating a fall to 0.90 could be seen as the wedge/ triangle formation has been broken. To see the above mentioned chart pattern click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml
To see the statement released earlier in the day by the RBA click on: http://www.rba.gov.au/MediaReleases/2008/mr_08_12.html
Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
|
