FX Thoughts for the Day
USD-CHF @ 1.1077/81... Watch out for ECB
R: 1.1100 / 1.1135 / 1.1175 / 1.1200
S: 1.1050-25 / 1.1000 / 1.0975 / 1.0925
A dip to 1.10 was seen in the day in the pair and some buying interest since then has resulted in the pair rising towards 1.1050 once again. The pair has a decent Support in the 1.10 region seen at: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/chfcandle.shtml
The momentum remains upward, however, the data release later in the day could see some volatile moves in the day ahead and could result in some false breaks/spikes in the majors. A dip towards 1.0940, the 21-day SMA cannot be ruled out. However, if seen, it should be decent level to enter long.
Watch out for the ECB interest rate decision and the statement release thereafter. To follow the data release click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/euecb.shtml
GBP-USD @ 1.7780/84... All eyes on BOE
R: 1.7800 / 1.7860 / 1.7900 / 1.7990
S: 1.7750 / 1.7700 / 1.7600 / 1.7500
A small rise towards 1.7860 attracted some selling and the pair is now trading lower near 1.78. There is a minor Support at 1.7800-785 However, with all eyes on the BOE meet, the pair could face some serious selling. The day has seen a trading range of 160-pips already and BOE voicing concern over growth would be the final nail in the coffin for the pair.
A strong sell off, if witnessed, could lead to a fall towards 1.7575, possibly even 1.75 in the pair. However, there is a flip side to the coin. With the market already knowing that the UK economy is in a bad shape a major sell-off might not be triggered. The latter however, is only a word of caution.
AUD-USD @ 0.8335/39.... Potential to rise
R: 0.8350 / 0.8400-25 / 0.8475
S: 0.8300 / 0.8250 / 0.8150 / 0.8100
A dip towards 0.83 has seen some buying develop. However, the pair has some intra-day Resistance at 0.8400-25. A break past might not be seen in the day.
There is a triangle formation seen on the hourly charts and so the Stop in our trade has been tightened. However, if the triangle breaks in our favour, a rise towards 0.85 could be seen over today-tomorrow.
To see the charts of the pair click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml
The pair has long-term Supports between 0.8250-0.8050 and provided this Support region holds, a rally again could be seen.
Holding:
Long AUD 10K 0.8369, SL 0.8288, TP 0.8490
Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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