FX Thoughts for the Day
USD-CHF @ 1.1394/98... Could dip from here
R: 1.1375 / 1.1400 / 1.1420-38 / 1.1475
S: 1.1330 / 1.1300 / 1.1250-35 / 1.1200
The pair has risen to the high of 1.1449 during the day, as expected in the report earlier in the day. The market now has some Support at 1.1400 above the stronger Support at 1.1350 and at 1.1330-00. The pair has a fair chance of witnessing a dip in the day from here towards 1.1350 breaking below the immediate Support at 1.1400 as well.
Overall the pair could be bullish as it continues to trade above the 21-month SMA at 1.1317. However, currently one cannot conclude that the SMA has been broken past, as the rise could be just a small spike in the bigger picture.
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GBP-USD @ 1.7608/613... Could bounce from here
R: 1.7600-20 / 1.7680 / 1.7700 / 1.7750
S: 1.7550 / 1.7500 / 1.7450 / 1.7420 / 1.7360 / 1.7310
Cable had dipped to a low of 1.7515 during the day and has since then risen to the current levels. The day ahead is expected to see the pair rise further towards 1.76 and higher.
With the 21-day SMA flattening, a sharp rise over the week cannot be ruled out completely. The rise is also likely owing to the fact that the Support at 1.7440 region is the 50% retracement of the rise since 2000 (1.3682) to 2008 (2.1163).
AUD-USD @ 0.7480/84... Bigger picture important
R: 0.7500 / 0.7535 / 0.7550-75 / 0.7620
S: 0.7435 / 0.7400 / 0.7350 / 0.7314
Aussie has dipped below the immediate Support at 0.75 and could now recede lower towards the 50% retracement of the rise from 0.4775 (2001) to 0.9851 (2008) at 0.7315.
Overall the market remains uncertain and is difficult to anticipate the speed of the fall from here towards 0.7314. However, the pair is currently trading well below the Max Low for the day at 0.7525, as the market once again trending. Whether the Support at 0.7314 will hold or not remains to be seen.
We would like to caution our readers to avoid too many short-term trades and keep an eye on the bigger picture instead.
Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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