FX Thoughts for the Day
USD-CHF @ 1.1418/22... Support at 1.1400 crucial
R: 1.1450 / 1.1480-1500 / 1.1540 / 1.1575-1600
S: 1.1410-20 / 1.1370 / 1.1350-35 / 1.1300
An intra-day dip to 1.14 has seen some buying develop however, the pair has been trading pressured below 1.1450.
Overall, the pair seems to be in a decent uptrend however, the uptrend could now be challenged by the Resistance at 1.1490-1500. As long as the Support at 1.14-1380 holds the pair could rise towards and beyond the 100-week SMA at 1.1440 where it faces some Resistance intra-day. 1.14 is an important level from here as happens to be the 61.8% retracement from 1.1248 (Jun-07) to 0.9637 (Mar?08) and if holds, it could provide the momentum required to rise past the Resistance at 1.15 as well.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy 10K USD at 1.1380, SL 1.1280,TP 1.1480
GBP-USD @ 1.7486/90... Mixed for now
R: 1.7500 / 1.7550 / 1.7600-20 / 1.7680
S: 1.7450 / 1.7400 / 1.7360 / 1.7300
Cable has once again dipped to a low of 1.7320 during the day after facing Resistance at 1.7600-50. 1.7320, the low today, is also where it had found Support earlier and could now lead to a rise during the US session towards 1.76 once again.
However, buying is difficult at such levels. There is an outside chance that the 100-month MA at 1.7341 could break and this could result in the pair slipping towards 1.7000-1.6936, the 200?month SMA. The break below 1.7340 might not be seen immediately.
To see the chart click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpcandle.shtml
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpmth.shtml
In such volatile market conditions it is important to keep and eye on the longer-term charts like weekly and monthly charts intead of the 4-hourly and daily charts.
AUD-USD @ 0.7192/96... Support at 0.70
R: 0.7200 / 0.7260 / 0.7300 / 0.7375
S: 0.7150 / 0.7100 / 0.7060 / 0.7000-0.6990
The pair faced some strong Resistance near 0.7350 during the day, and a slip from there has brought the pair to the level of 0.7150. However, with important Support at 0.70, 200-month SMA and 100-month SMA it is difficult to trade on the pair.
Overall, as long as the Support holds the pair is bias to rise towards 0.7550-80 However, the day has seen it’s share of rise and might not see a further rise from here. In a surprise move the RBA has cut interest rates by 100bps, instead of the expected 50bps, to 6.00%.
To see the chart of interest rates click on: http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/aurba.shtml
Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
|
