FX Thoughts for the Day
USD-CHF @ 1.0994/95...Breaks 21-day MA Support
R: 1.1134-53 / 1.1241 / 1.1306
S: 1.0969-48 / 1.0904
Swiss has dipped quite a bit and also below the range mentioned in the morning. Having breached the 21-day MA looks set to move towards the 13-day MA at 1.0816 or if it manages to rise above from here, the dip below the 21-day MA would be construed as just a spike below for the pair.
A look at the monthly chart suggests a Long term range for the pair between 1.05-1.14 over the next several days.
Cable GBP-USD @ 1.4950/54...Resistance at 1.50
R: 1.5000 / 1.5233-64
S: 1.4807 / 1.4733 / 1.4689-60
The Resistance at 1.50 held on as the pair moved between 1.4970-1.4807 during the European session today. This looks like an important Resistance going forward which may hold during the US session as well. Whether this holds or breaks today is going to determine the trend over the next couple of weeks. However, the fact that it has already broken the 21-day MA makes one believe, it might take this Support to break the Resistance mentioned above.
Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.7201/04...Resistance at 21-week MA being tested
R: 0.7372 / 0.7465 / 0.7643
S: 0.7185-61 / 0.7135 / 0.7059-42
Aussie has been trading in a very thin range today and is presently taking Support of the 8-MA on the 4-hourly. If it manages to hold on, a rise towards 0.73 during the US session could be expected or a dip below the 21-MA on the 4-hourly could see the pair dip further towards 0.7060 which is a trendline Support on the 4-hourly joining the lows at 0.6851 and 0.6916. Region around 0.7040 is a good Support region for the pair which contains the 100-month and 200-month MAs. It is re-testing the 21-week MA Support at 0.7210
It could go either ways, which could be known if it either breaks the Support at 0.7183 or the Resistance at 0.7210 comprehensively. In the broader picture, though, the view that the pair is likely to move in the channel holds. To see the chart of Aussie, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml#candle
Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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