The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY

Bias: I expect the day to end lower but while 94.12 supports the initial risk is for a test of the 94.90-95.20 resistance

Daily Bullish

No break of 93.32 and a solid recovery back above 94.55. Be aware that having achieved this new high there is a strong risk of reversal lower at any time. However, while support at 94.12-18 remains intact I feel the immediate risk is higher back to 94.70 and after a correction to the 94.90-95.20 resistance area. This should cap. Thus, any stronger bullish stance would require a break above 95.20 which, if seen, would accelerate the rally through 95.46-56 and 96.32 and back to the 96.74 corrective high at least.

Medium Term Bullish

19th August: Only a recovery above the 95.28-34 area is going to bring any relief to the bearish move and only if seen would I look for a reversal back towards the 97.78 high.

Daily Bearish

Basically I feel that we should be on the lookout for a bearish reversal pattern right from the start today as price has done enough to satisfy the correction now. However,I will go with the favored view that we'll see the 94.90-95.20 resistance but this will provoke the expected reversal lower. While this rally is possible the 94.12-18 support must hold. Thus from 94.90-95.20 or a direct breach of 94.12 look for losses to resume back through Friday's 93.41 low and onto 93.05, 92.42 and then to the 92.03 target. I expect a bounce there but do also note the 91.74 low.

Medium Term Bearish

19th August: The 95.28-34 area now acts as the reversal but more likely we're going to continue to see losses, initially to around 93.75 and after a correction to 92.03 where a larger pullback is possible but still within a bearish structure