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The Daily Forecaster: AUDUSD |
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Daily Forex Technicals |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Aug 27 08 03:56 GMT |
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The Daily Forecaster: AUDUSD
Price: 0.8570
Bias: While 0.8550-55 supports I see more potential for a recovery to 0.8635-66 initially and after a correction to 0.8688
Daily Bullish
The lower target at 0.8490 provided the expected low and I feel this should now cause a stronger recovery higher. The move above yesterday's first corrective peak at 0.8574 is encouraging and while 0.8550-55 conitnues to support I feel we shall see gains move up to 0.8635. This should cause a pullback. However, while it remains above 0.8579-90 look for the move to rise as far as 0.8688 from where a larger correction is likely.
Medium Term Bullish
26th August: We are now much closer to the anticipated 0.8526 target (and should allow for 0.8490) and while this holds there is a good chance of a deeper correction higher. A move above 0.8688 would confirm.
Daily Bearish
Losses were seen as expected to the minimum target at 0.8523 but also to the 0.8492 target which held perfectly. I feel today will continue to see gains and thus there will be limited potential for sales. The 0.8635 area is likely to provide a small pullback to the 0.8579-89 area but I wouldn't want to hold any further. Later a test towards 0.8688 should fail and provide a much better selling opportunity. Only an earlier drop below 0.8550-55 woudl concern and suggest a retest of 0.8492 and probable breach for 0.8443-53 min.
27th August: It looks very much as if we saw a major low yesterday and thus only break below 0.8492 would maintain the downward momentum for 0.8443-53 minimum but probably further to 0.8368.
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| Resistance |
| 0.8735-60 |
| 0.8688 |
| 0.8666 |
| 0.8635 |
| 0.8610 |
| 0.8588 |
| Support |
| 0.8550-55 |
| 0.8523 |
| 0.8492 |
| 0.8443-53 |
| 0.8414 |
| 0.8368 |
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| 4-Hour Momentum |
Trailing Stop
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Bearish trend |
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| RSI |
Bullish divergence |
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| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| The monthly cycles seem to be findng a high and this seems to be confirmed by bearish divergences across the board. Daily cycles are however at a high and thus the main direction for now seems lower. |
| Cycles and Momentum |
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Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Finding a low |
Bullish divergence |
| Weekly |
Declining |
Oversold |
| Monthly |
Finding a high |
Bullish divergence |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
26th August:
Losses have ruled and have reached 0.8560 this morning. Keep in mind the 0.8526 target which is a 76.4% projection in Wave (v). Also within the shorter term structure a wave equality target of the decline from 0.8811 to 0.8613 low is at 0.8490.
We do appear to be close to a larger reversal higher.
27th August:
The 0.8490 wave equality target was tested and held with bullish divergences in hourly, 4-hour and daily charts. This does suggest we have seen the end of a 5-wave move lower and thus we can expect a larger correction.
The prior Wave b of Wave iv should provide the first target at 0.8688 which should then cause a deeper correction. Beyond we need to take this step by step but there is every reason to consider the 41.4%-50% retracement of the entire decline at 0.9050-0.9175 as a potential target.
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.
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