The Daily Forecaster: AUDUSD

Bias: Mixed – waiting for breaks

Daily Bullish

The break above 0.7299-25 and also 0.7340 saw gains reach the 0.7384 target from where we have seen a pullback lower. If I have any preference here it is bullish even if there is a gaping bearish divergence. The problem with this one is that momentum has already reached oversold and the line is so steep that it can break higher. Above 0.7311 would extend back to 0.7360-82. Take care here in case we see a sideways consolidation. Above 0.7382 extends gains to 0.7494.

Medium Term Bullish

30th April: We saw the break above 0.7125-30 which led to the 0.7297-25 resistance and thus as long as 0.7144-73 supports we are more likely to push above 0.7325-40 to 0.7384 and there is every chance this could see as high as 0.7494-08.

Daily Bearish

Now that we've seen a break higher I feel that any decline will be corrective. I do see resistance at 1.4833-40 and while this holds there is risk of losses back below 1.4736 and to the 1.4672-85 area. I suspect this will hold. Thus only breach of 1.4672 & 1.4644 would frustrate and send price back lower to the 1.4580-00 area which is likely to cause a reaction back higher. Below are the 1.4514 lows.

Medium Term Bearish

30th April: My suspicion that the upside was about to resume finally came through with a bang yesterday and now only back below 0.7120-40 would cause a whip back lower.