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The Daily Forecaster: EURJPY |
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Technical Archives |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Jul 11 08 03:30 GMT |
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The Daily Forecaster: EURJPY
Price: 168.92
Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish
Gains have persisted and have retested the 169.12 corrective high. This is really pushing the bearish structure into submission but will only provide final confirmation on a break above 1.6912. If seen look for gains to extend further to 169.75-82 at least. Take care here this should cause a correction although it should be quite shallow. Any break through 169.82 would provide momentum for a further step higher to 170.53 but this should cause a slightly bigger correction.
Medium Term Bullish
8th July: Yesterday's recovery is beginning to make the structure look less bearish. Any break back above 169.12-44 would begin to threaten a move to 170.72-83 minimum and probably as far as 171.21 and 171.96.
Daily Bearish
It is really difficult to retain a bearish stance although technically the move to 169.11 may just have been a deep pullback. However, wait for a break below 168.70 which should allow losses to 168.27 and possibly 167.82. If these supports are routinely broken then the move should extend to 167.11-15. However, the more I look at it the more I feel the downside is not likely.
Medium Term Bearish
11th July: With gains extending I'd rather sell into a further rally to 171.22 or on a break below 167.11. I do feel a cap is due and for losses therefore, but currently it's tough to be confidently bearish. |
| Resistance |
| 171.21 |
| 170.53 |
| 170.22 |
| 169.75-82 |
| 169.44 |
| 169.12 |
| Support |
| 168.70 |
| 168.27 |
| 167.82 |
| 167.58 |
| 167.11 |
| 166.07 |
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| 4-Hour Momentum |
Trailing Stop
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Bearish Consolidation |
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| RSI |
High-neutral Long Term Cycles |
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| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| Monthly cycles appear to have found a major high at 168.93 and should set the scene for some long term losses. With the daily cycle coming to a high as weekly cycles decline there is risk of significant losses. |
| Cycles and Momentum |
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Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Finding a
high? |
High-neutral |
| Weekly |
Lower |
Overbought |
| Monthly |
Lower |
Neutral |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
11th July:
Gains have extended to 169.11. In some ways this could be interpreted as a deep Wave ii of Wave (a) of Wave (iii). Still, that's difficult to have great faith in. Wait for loss of the 167.11 low and if this is seen then we can talk about a retest in Wave (a0 of the 166.07 low and eventually lower.
Until that time there does seem to be a growing argument in favor of the upside extending one more time. A 66.7% projection in Wave -v- rests at 171.21 which is where Wave (c) will have projected by 161.8%.
A break above the 169.12 corrective high would bring this into focus with minor Wave iii projections at 169.82 and 170.53.
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.
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