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The Daily Forecaster: EURJPY |
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Daily Forex Technicals |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Oct 09 08 05:11 GMT |
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The Daily Forecaster: EURJPY
Price: 137.39
Bias: I suspect we'll see a move back higher to 141.04-25
Daily Bullish
The wave structure here remains pretty erratic and it is reminding me more of a complex correction and yesterday's low at 134.13 does seem to have a strong chance of causing a move back higher on the back of bullish divergences in both hourly and 4-hour charts. A break above the 137.95-05 peaks would add weight to this argument. If seen then look for follow-through above 138.74 for 139.50 and 140.45 en route the 141.04-25 area again. I think it will cap.
Medium Term Bullish
8th October: The 141.10 area has been tested but on review only a break above 141.77 would extend gains to 143.17.
Daily Bearish
Yesterday's losses below 135.00 also penetrated the 134.56 support but then found a low at 134.13. With bullish divergences in hourly & 4 hour charts we should be cautious of the downside today. Only while the 137.95-05 area caps and we see a break below 137.05 and 136.50 woudl I then feel that we could see a second move lower to 134.13 and possibly 133.58 and 133.08.
Medium Term Bearish
9th October: The downside has continued and although we may see the 141.04-25 area retested I feel the downside should easily extend below 134.13 and also the 13308 target which means we may well see the next larger target at 128.12...
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| Resistance |
| 141.77 |
| 141.04-25 |
| 140.45 |
| 139.50 |
| 138.74 |
| 137.95-05 |
| Support |
| 137.05 |
| 136.50 |
| 136.00 |
| 135.50-60 |
| 134.90 |
| 134.13 |
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ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
| 4-Hour Momentum |
Trailing Stop
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Bearish trend
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| RSI |
Bullish divergence |
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| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| Monthly cycles appear to have found a major high at 169.95 and should set the scene for some long term losses and these have developed slightly quicker than expected. However, we may find these limited while a complex correction develops. |
| Cycles and Momentum |
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Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Still lower? |
Oversold |
| Weekly |
Lower |
Oversold |
| Monthly |
Lower |
Oversold |
8th October:
The correction to 141.04 is inconclusive but the downside still looks at risk. Back above 138.60 would suggest potential for a deeper correction to an alternative 50% retracement in minor Wave iv at 143.77. More likely we shall see loss of the 135.01 low to maintain the wave equality target at 133.08.
9th October:
Losses were seen but stalled at 134.13. This happens to be a 14.6% expansion of the 135.01 -141.05 recovery. Given that we have bullish divergences I suspect that if we get back above the 137.95-05 peaks then there is a good chance we'll see Wave efc back to the 141.05 peak and maybe small breach.
Overall this will mean that we are still in Wave -c- of Wave -iii- lower and this should easily break below the wave equality target at 133.08 to force further losses.
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
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