The Daily Forecaster: EURJPY

Bias: I feel there is early risk of a retest at 135.36-71 but then end the day lower

Daily Bullish

While we saw gains these were very erratic and actually stronger than the conservative view I had. Indeed, this does seem to risk an earlier break higher and while 133.99 remains intact Ideally I'd like to see the upside extend above 134.74-97 and push into the 135.36-71 resistance. I feel this area will cap for larger losses. Thus any stronger bullish stance will require a break above the 136.18 resistance and if seen then we should see follow-through to 136.58-92 and probably 137.59 at least. Note next resistance at 138.32.

Medium Term Bullish

16th June: Yesterday's break lower appears to break the entire uptrend and thus any upside is likely to be for a correction only. Thus only above 135.70 would risk follow-through to 137.60. Then I will review.

Daily Bearish

There is still early risk of seeing a push into the 135.36-71 area but I feel this will cap and generate losses by the end of the day. From there, or an earlier break below 133.99, I will expect the downtrend to continue. There is minor support at 133.10-50 and stronger at 133.02. Take care as this area may well hold on first test. Thus, only look for stronger follow through on a break of 133.02 and if seen will provoke additional losses to 132.34 at least. Then note support at 130.72-97 and 130.39.

Medium Term Bearish

19th June: It seems as if we shall see the correction recycle all the way to 135.36-71 and from there expect stronger losses back to the 132.34 low and after a correction further to 129.72-130.39 en route a retest of the 126.96 low.