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The Daily Forecaster: EURUSD |
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Technical Archives |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Jul 24 08 03:32 GMT |
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The Daily Forecaster: EURUSD
Price: 1.5679
Bias: Look for an early recovery to 1.5760-82 (max 1.5806) before moving below 1.5654 to 1.5590 & 1.5492
Daily Bullish
Losses were seen as expected to stall briefly around 1.5811-27 but then saw follow-through to 1.5669. There is support here and at 1.5654 which should prompt a pullback which should move into the 1.5760-82 area which I suspect will cap. Also note deeper resistance at 1.5806. Only above this higher resistance would turn the tables for gains to extend to 1.5853 and probably the 1.5880-96 pivot and Fibonacci resistance.
Medium Term Bullish
24th July: Yesterday's losses really put a hole in the bullish stance. I still wish to be cautious at these early stages but only back above 1.5806 would bring some relief for 1.5880-96 and probably 1.5942 en route the 1.6036 high.
Daily Bearish
The 1.5711-27 support did manage a brief barrier to the downside but finally caved in to see losses to 1.5669. It does tend to point to a larger downward structure. However, I see the first risk today as being higher to 1.5760-82 at least (allow for 1.5806.) While this area caps the argument favors additional losses down through 1.5654-69 and to 1.5590-1.5610 at least while I susepct these should eventually reach the 1.5492 area.
Medium Term Bearish
23rd July: While I had considered the 1.5750-70 area as supporting yesterday's moves suggest we should hold off from getting bearish until the 1.5710-27 area breaks - only if seen would the decline continue to 1.5590-10 and possibly 1.5492.
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| Resistance |
| 1.5942 |
| 1.5853-83 |
| 1.5806 |
| 1.5782 |
| 1.5760 |
| 1.5720 |
| Support |
| 1.5654-69 |
| 1.5631 |
| 1.5590-10 |
| 1.5571 |
| 1.5529 |
| 1.5492 |
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| 4-Hour Momentum |
Trailing Stop
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Bearish trend |
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| RSI |
Oversold |
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| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| Monthly cycles still appear to point to long term gains but weekly are now pointing lower and should continue through to year end.Daily cycles have been slow to exert any influence and may take until early September before generating stronger losses. |
| Cycles and Momentum |
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Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Reviewing |
Bearish divergence |
| Weekly |
Lower |
Bearish divergence |
| Monthly |
Higher |
Overbought |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
24th July:
Break of the 1.5711-27 support does seem to change this structure into a more bearish one. I suspect now that the 1.5481 low was Wave (i) and the 1.5942 high was Wave (ii). The decline from there appears to have completed 5 waves and thus suggests yesterday's 1.5669 low (allow for 1.5654) was Wave (a) of Wave (iii).
Thus a 41.4% retracement lies at 1.5782 and a modestly strong pivot resistance at 1.5760. I suspect this are will cap but we should also note the 50% retracement at 1.5806.
Overall this would imply losses to the 138.2% projection in Wave (iii) at 1.5590 but I suspect we should see this move further to the 176.4% projection at 1.5492.
Only an earlier break above 1.5810 would break the bearish structure and suggest that we have seen a (very) deep Wave (b) and thus cause a return to the 1.6036 high and above.
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
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The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.
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