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The Daily Forecaster: EURUSD |
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Daily Forex Technicals |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Dec 04 08 03:37 GMT |
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The Daily Forecaster: EURUSD
Price: 1.2690
Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish
Price held within a tight range yesterday and thus we are left in the same situation. The medium view is still bullish but I cannot rule out an earlier decline to the 1.2467-18 area. If this is seen I feel it should provide a good base for a reversal higher. An earlier break above 1.2740-66 will bring this expected rally sooner. If seen look for price to extend through 1.2835 en route 1.2883 minimum. There is further further resistance at 1.2883. I suspect these lower resistance levels initially. Eventual target is around 1.2989-23.
Medium Term Bullish
1st December: While I remain MT bullish it is looking as if we are going to see further 1.2480-1.2970 ranging before this finally breaks higher. Until then just watch reactions at the 1.2473-1.2518 support...
Daily Bearish
No break in either direction but I sense that there is now a slightly stronger risk of the dip to 1.2467-1.2518 first. There is support at 1.2645-50 and breach would raise this risk. If this support breaks then note the 1.2600 corrective low that may cause a small pullback but overall I feel then we should be heading lower through the 1.2561 low en route the stronger 1.2467-1.2518 support. However, I expect this to hold for a larger reversal higher. Only breach opens up a move below 1.2422, 1.2387 and down to the 1.2328 low.
Medium Term Bearish
1st December: Friday's break back below 1.2690 should see price move back to the 1.2473-18 area. However, unless that breaks I am still more bullish. Thus only look for stronger losses below 1.2470 which would push the 1.2387-22 lows and possibly 1.2328. |
| Resistance |
| 1.2989-23 |
| 1.2932-60 |
| 1.2883 |
| 1.2835 |
| 1.2805 |
| 1.2740-66 |
| Support |
| 1.2645-50 |
| 1.2600 |
| 1.2561 |
| 1.2467-18 |
| 1.2422 |
| 1.2328 |
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ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
| 4-Hour Momentum |
Trailing Stop
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Bearish consolidation
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| RSI |
Neutral |
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| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| After continued losses we do seem to be seeing a daily cycle higher and a rather weak one for the weekly cycles. Overall I feel this should give rise to gains into the January-February time frame - may just stretch into March.. |
| Cycles and Momentum |
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Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Higher |
High-neutral |
| Weekly |
Higher |
Oversold |
| Monthly |
Higher |
Low-neutral |
1st December:
The break below 1.2690 blew away the directly bullish picture. However, I still feel the move so far doesn't really fit in with a MT bearish structure.
Therefore I am more inclined to think that given the 1.3080 high was a 76.4% retracement of the 1.3297 - 1.2387 decline that we have probably seen Wave ^a at 1.2387 and Wave ^b at 1.3080.
This provides us with a target for Wave ^c in the 61.8%-66.7% projection between 1.2473-1.2518. While this holds we should see Waves ^d and ^e develop within the range to complete Wave (b) before the larger rally in Wave (c) can develop.
Thus only below 1.2450 would pressure the 1.2387-22 lows and probably the 1.2318 low. At that point we need to resurrect the potential 138.2% projection in Wave (C) at 1.1885.
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.
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