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The Daily Forecaster: GBPUSD |
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Technical Archives |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Jun 26 08 05:37 GMT |
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The Daily Forecaster: GBPUSD
Price: 1.9731
Bias: Slightly mixed - waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish
Although 1.9661 broke it was by just 7 points and from there we have seen affirm move higher to 1.9767. I am finding the pattern rather strange as I see conflicts within the wave structure that open up divergence implications. Certainly it looks as if the 1.9710 support may well hold and if this cause a move back to yesterday's 1.9767 high it would argue for gains above 1.9789 towards 1.9812 minimum and I would then feel a probable break for 1.9849 & 1.9871-80 at least. Next resistance is at 1.9940-82.
Medium Term Bullish
26th June: Persistent gains threaten further gains. However, only back above 1.9767-89 would confirm a move above this resistance and probably 1.9849-80 at least and probably 1.9940-82.
Daily Bearish
I find the recovery from 1.9584 more corrective but to a level that is difficult to retain a bearish view. Thus wait for confirmation of losses which will require a move back below 1.9710 initially and if seen this opens up a move through to 1.9653-80 at least. Take care again in this area although by this point I feel the downside will become a stronger argument. Below 1.9653 opens up 1.9585 again and potentially 1.9562.
Medium Term Bearish
23rd June: Having achieved the 1.9779 target there is risk of a peak being seen. Below 1.9690 would confirm losses to 1.9452-95 in the fourth leg of a triangle |
| Resistance |
| 1.9940-82 |
| 1.9871-80 |
| 1.9849 |
| 1.9812 |
| 1.9789 |
| 1.9770 |
| Support |
| 1.9710 |
| 1.9680 |
| 1.9653 |
| 1.9628 |
| 1.9562-85 |
| 1.9452-95 |
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| 4-Hour Momentum |
Trailing Stop
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Bullish consolidation |
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| RSI |
High-neutral |
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| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| Monthy cycles still point to losses into mid-2009. Right now weekly cycles are still rising but these should find a peak by around Q3/Q4 and generate stronger losses into Q2 next year. |
| Cycles and Momentum |
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Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Higher |
Neutral but rising |
| Weekly |
Higher |
Oversold |
| Monthly |
Lower |
Neutral butdeclining |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
26th June:
Gains have pushed deeper and from this depth there is a growing risk of a more bullish structure. The problem I have is that from the 1.9585 low the structure appears more corrective so I still find it difficult to be outright bullish. We shall therefore need to see a break above the 1.9789 high to suggest that there is a stronger bullish structure. A 138.2% projection is at 1.9871 which is close to the 50% retracement in the decline from 2.0397. A 176.4% projection in Wave iii is at 1.9984.
Should the 1.9789 peak hold then a move below a minor 50% retracement at 1.9710 will assist while below the last Wave x at 1.9653 should then resurrect the 66.7% and 76.4% projections in Wave ^d at 1.9495 and 1.9452.
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
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The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.
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