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The Daily Forecaster: GBPUSD |
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Daily Forex Technicals |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Oct 16 08 04:38 GMT |
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The Daily Forecaster: GBPUSD
Price: 1.7272
Bias: We'll need a break back above 1.7365-00 to confirms stronger gains while below 1.7057 signals losses
Daily Bullish
We didn't see the expected gains yesterday with loss of the 1.7346 support generating a solid decline down to 1.7128. I am not yet convinced this will mean direct losses back to the 1.6771 low but I feel it more prudent to wait for confirmation of the upside resuming. The first resistance is at 1.7365 and if this gives way I'll feel more confident about the upside again. We shall still need to exercise some care at the 1.7390-00 peaks but once this breaks look for a direct move back above 1.7511 towards the 1.7601-29 highs.
Medium Term Bullish
14th October: While we are seeing gains these should stall at 1.7719. Only breach extends to 1.7748-82. Next resistance is at 1.7943.
Daily Bearish
Breach of 1.7346 indeed proved fatal for the bullish preference and provoke solid losses down to the 1.7128 low. In some ways this looks bearish but I'd prefer to hold back a little. The key resistance for me is at 1.7365-90 and while this caps a reversal back below 1.7250 & 1.7210 woudl add weight to price and generate retest of 1.7128 and probably follow-through to 1.7057. Again, take care here as this could still provide a reversal higher. Breach maintains the negative momentum for 1.6947-73 and 1.6859.
Medium Term Bearish
14th October: For the moment I concentrate on the correction but while this remains below 1.7719 I still feel that another new low is likely. For the moment I shall watch and look for a bounce from around the 1.6771 low.
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| Resistance |
| 1.7601-29 |
| 1.7462-11 |
| 1.7390-00 |
| 1.7365 |
| 1.7324 |
| 1.7308 |
| Support |
| 1.7210 |
| 1.7180 |
| 1.7128 |
| 1.7057 |
| 1.7006 |
| 1.6947-73 |
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ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
| 4-Hour Momentum |
Trailing Stop
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Bearish consolidation
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| RSI |
Neutral |
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| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| Monthy cycles still point to losses into mid- 2009 but with price reaching key support areas - and assuming these hold - we may be able to interpret the cycles as being within a larger weekly triangle into mid next year. |
| Cycles and Momentum |
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Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Finding a low |
Oversold |
| Weekly |
Lower |
Oversold |
| Monthly |
Lower |
Oversold |
16th October:
I have a problem here in that the 1.7629 high just seems too low for a Wave -b- retracement. I would prefer then to call this a Wave (a). A 61.8% retracement lies at 1.7099 and a 66.7% retracement at 1.7057 which is also a pivot support area. Until this is broken I would prefer to call this a Wave (b) correction.
Now, a wave equality target from the 1.7128 low would imply a target at 1.7986 which is a bit high. If we see a dip in Wave (b) to the 66.7% retracement at 1.7057 a wave equality target would imply a target around 1.7915 - that is the 50% retracement in Wave (b).
Thus we need to be a little careful as to where the bottom of this decline will develop. A break above the 1.7390-00 area would imply that we have seen Wave (b) already at 1.7128. While 1.7365 caps there is still risk of seeing one more dip to the 1.7057 level.
Only below the 1.7050 support would confirm direct losses in Wave -c- of Wave -v-.
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
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